Psychological warfare
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s recent antics are obviously an extreme form of psychological warfare. He and his ministers and advisers keep repeating the same threats, again and again, day in, day out. Correspondents from Turkey have run out of ideas for titles. With such explicit and frequent threats, it’s hard to write about an “escalation” or a “crescendo.”
These threats cannot be dismissed either; they are not a case of the dog with more bark than bite. One theory, however, supports that all this is a psychological tactic aimed, mainly, at intimating Greece and forcing it to the negotiating table without terms – and without a crisis having to break out. The tactic has not worked but it is clearly being tried out. The second objective is Turkish public opinion; Erdogan is selling nationalism and a feeling of supremacy. There is a risk that his grandstanding will be brushed off as bombast and hollow threats, marking him out for criticism.
Erdogan, however, is also playing to another audience too, and that is the United States and Europe. Both have made it clear to Ankara that they don’t want trouble in the Aegean and the Eastern Mediterranean, especially given the raging war in Ukraine and the enormous strategic importance for the West of NATO cohesion. The message has been sent to Erdogan from the highest possible level and through multiple channels. So, there is a chance that his threats are, in part, the usual bartering, whereby he can claim that he’s holding back even though he’s in the right and under pressure from the upcoming elections. And in exchange for not carrying out his threats, he expects to get the green light for the F-16 sale, among other demands.
Greece should be fighting fire with fire. It, too, needs to employ psychology, in a serious manner. It needs to ensure that it never conveys an image of chaos, with infighting among the leaderships of the Hellenic Armed Forces and the National Intelligence Service featuring in the headlines. There is, however, a silver lining: Even though our politicians may tear at each other’s throats in the public arena, national consensus and unity remain strong, particularly when it comes to relations with Turkey.
One final observation: Many have predicted that the period in the runup to the elections in Turkey and Greece will be dangerous. Those in the know believed that it would be safer, or more predictable at least, if Erdogan was certain of victory in the Turkish elections. Since Wednesday and his more recent “missteps,” however, this scenario has become more unlikely.
