Rockets and politics in Erdogan’s mind

In our effort to understand what Erdogan is aiming at by trying to eliminate Istanbul’s mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu, from the political scene, it is useful to keep in mind that the wily Turkish president is susceptible to major mistakes. This does not mean that he has suddenly lost the cunning which has guided him all his life, but we ought to consider whether this extreme act is intended to show that Erdogan is in charge and manipulates everything as he sees fit, whether it is a serious tactical error, or whether he is trying to distract voters from something else.

With Erdogan, things are always both simple and complicated. Looking at the purchase of the Russian S-400 missile system, we see the obvious cost to Turkey in terms of bad relations with both parties in the US Congress and the country’s eviction from the F-35 fighter jet program.

But however much this mistake may have cost Turkey, it has benefited Erdogan and Putin: The former sees untold billions in Russian money propping up an economy which he himself has damaged more than anyone else, while the latter finds a huge loophole with which to evade international sanctions.

If the S-400 affair shows that what is good for Erdogan is not necessarily good for Turkey, the attempt to eliminate Imamoglu may turn out to be good for Turkey and bad for Erdogan. The shameless undermining of the most basic principles of political rivalry may lead the nominally united opposition to finally settle on a joint candidate for the presidential election.

Also, despite their reservations against voting for Kemalists and other nationalists, the Kurds and other voters of the HDP (which also is being prosecuted) may swing in favor of the anti-Erdogan candidate, in order to avert another blow against democracy.

Another important question is whether the domestic turbulence that Erdogan provoked was a mistake that diverted voters’ attention from foreign policy (where he calls the shots and the opposition parties merely follow), or whether he wants people to forget that the rhetorical rockets that he keeps firing at the neighbors are leading nowhere.