Post-election coalitions, geopolitical concerns
The moral decline we have been experiencing from a series of issues – both inside and outside Greece – will likely bolster the extremes of the political spectrum in the next general elections. A system that shows signs of rot invite denigration and fan anti-systemic sentiment.
One of the people who stands to benefit is convicted Golden Dawner Ilias Kasidiaris, whose reach has been underestimated by public opinion polls and who may make it into Parliament again with his far-right nationalist Ellines (Greeks) party. For obvious reasons, many of his supporters do not divulge who they’re planning to vote for.
Apart from the symbolic importance of the stain of antisemitism and racism returning to the stage of Parliament, there is also the alarming possibility of six or even seven parties entering Parliament, where the formation of a coalition government becomes more worrisome.
One of the concerns about the post-election puzzle is the role that will be played by the nationalist Greek Solution party, as its participation in a coalition government could affect the country’s geopolitical orientation.
The clashes between governing New Democracy, socialist PASOK and leftist SYRIZA may be intense and the differences separating them are obviously numerous, but the country’s geopolitical orientation is not one of them. They might disagree on tactics, but they’re on the same page about Greece’s strategic direction and priorities, which they have all defended when they were in power.
This is not the case with Kyriakos Velopoulos’ Greek Solution, which has an entirely different position on a string of strategic choices. We have to ask ourselves what its participation in a coalition government could mean in terms of the country’s stance on the war in Ukraine, its position in the Balkans, and how we deal with Turkey.
It cannot be taken for granted that the “allure” of power and all the benefits that come from participating in the government, will be enough to change the party’s beliefs and priorities. The foreign pressure is significant and the influence strong.
In addition, a good chunk of ND, including party officials and voters who support the prime minister personally, will find themselves in a very difficult position. Some cannot even imagine the prospect of being in a coalition with Greek Solution.
Local and foreign observers are expressing concerns about the elections bringing serious destabilization. It is in the setting discussed here that this particular risk rises precipitously across many levels.
In the almost certain event that New Democracy will fail to form a government in both the first election that will be held under simple proportional representation and the second, where it might win but without an outright majority, the possibility of its teaming up with Greek Solution will definitely come to the fore.
The dilemma will be great, as will be what’s at stake.
