After Moscow’s influence wanes
Nine months have passed since Russia’s incursion into Ukraine and the Ukrainians seem to be in for a long and bitter winter during which their living conditions will worsen.
While war is destroying the foundations of a country and the lives of its people, Europe can already feel the economic and political implications of the conflict. That said, it is far from certain that European leaders will be in a position to properly assess the situation when the war ends.
A question that has yet to receive a convincing answer is what will happen after a war which, in one way or another, tarnished the reputation of the Russian Federation as a power with considerable influence in its wider region.
This imbalance is already evident in the way that Beijing approaches Moscow. There is a widespread feeling that the relationship between China and Russia is becoming uncomfortably one-sided. This is also evident in Beijing’s policy in Central Asia. In September, China’s President Xi Jinping took his first foreign trip since the pandemic.
A question that has yet to receive a convincing answer is what will happen after a war which, in one way or another, tarnished the reputation of the Russian Federation as a power with considerable influence in its wider region
He visited Kazakhstan before traveling to Uzbekistan for a gathering of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).
Tension on the border between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan – a long-standing dispute – recently escalated, with Russia appearing unable to intervene. Turkey is preparing yet another incursion into northern Syria; it is not clear whether Ankara is doing so with Moscow’s consent. Meanwhile, Armenia’s international position has worsened following the country’s devastating defeat in Nagorno-Karabakh to Azeri forces who enjoyed significant Turkish support.
The decline of Russian influence in its periphery will have immediate consequences. Apart from the distancing of Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, which are for the time being the most obvious cases, more states on the Russian periphery will seek to cut ties with Moscow.
Turkey’s adventure in the Caucasus region is an attempt to fill in a vacuum; the same can be said about China’s race for influence in Central Asia.
The war in Ukraine may just be a bloody episode in a very different world whose outline for now we can hardly tell.
