It’s not just the economy, stupid!

An interesting debate has picked up in recent months: What will decide the Greek election? The economy or the wiretapping scandal? Certain pundits have presented this dilemma in an attempt to forge a collective attitude, as it were, that can be summed up as the apotheosis of the cynical citizen.

Put differently, we are seeing a reasoning based on public surveys that aims to convince us that even if a government violates the Constitution and undermines the principles of liberal democracy, it is not a big deal because citizens mostly care about their pockets. So, let’s shift the debate on to something else, they say.

This cynical approach is also popular among some leftists who claim that the wiretapping scandal is one of those subjects which only resonates with middle-class educated elites, institution-fixated centrists, yet fails to with the poor who have been hit hardest by the cost-of-living crisis. According to this logic, if the opposition wants to sway low-income earners, it will have to concentrate on the most pressing issues dogging the poor, and not the surveillance allegations.

Attempting to interpret electoral motivation on the basis of the interests-vs-values or the reason-vs-sentiment dichotomies is to rack human complexity on a procrustean bed. However, political behavior is impacted by a range of factors which are not always easy to decipher, let alone predict (for example, who would have imagined the anti-vax movement a few years ago?).

With partisan affiliations being on the wane – among other reasons because parties do not offer radically different economic policies, only mild differences – a lot more voters than in the past are motivated by criteria such as personal values, way-of-life concerns and sensibilities that are not directly related to material issues – i.e. the economy. Sure, the economy is still top priority, but it would be wrong to think that the economy is the only, or the predominant, influence.

With partisan affiliations being on the wane, a lot more voters than in the past are motivated by criteria such as personal values, way-of-life concerns and sensibilities that are not directly related to material issues

That is why we must be careful about the way we read opinion polls. Let me give you a simple example: Let’s assume there is a survey asking people, “Who do you love more, your mother or father?” Also, let’s assume that 72 percent say that they love their mother more, compared to 28 percent who pick their father. How would you react to a newspaper headline such as: “No more dads! Greeks love their moms!” You would obviously regard it as an erroneous conclusion; because you were never asked whether you love your father, or how much you love him, or whether you grieved when he died. You were only asked to give a response in comparison to your mother.

The recent midterm elections in the United States have come to demonstrate in real conditions the value of the above reasoning. For weeks, opinion polls predicted a Republican landslide. The Democrats were in panic. Many said that the defeat would be because of the party’s agenda. The Republicans centered on hard issues (such as rising prices and crime) which appeared to be the voters’ main concerns, while the Democrats addressed soft, post-material or democracy issues; so it was deemed that the Republicans were better geared to appeal to the common person.

In the end, the tsunami turned out to be a bubble. Despite popular grievances about inflation and rising prices, the Democrats were able to contain the damage and maintain control of the Senate. The main reasons were the mass participation of women voters who voted against the Republicans in a defense of abortion rights and of young people who mobilized around issues such as marijuana legalization, student loans and ex-president Donald Trump. Different communities voted in line with different criteria.

Back at home, the wiretapping scandal may not be voters’ top everyday concern; but the issue does play upon the sensitivities of many citizens. Despite the government’s efforts to make people forget, the need to uphold liberal democracy is still fundamental in the conscience of many people who will neither keep silent nor forgive. After all, the annual anniversary of the November 17, 1973 uprising against the military dictatorship serves as a reminder that in this country the demand for bread is inseparable from the demand for freedom.

Nikos Marantzidis is a political science professor at the University of Macedonia.