Constant challenges and public opinion polls
Even though much has changed in Greece and the world in the past year, public opinion polls show ruling New Democracy maintaining a steady lead over SYRIZA, scoring more than 30% of voter intent as the lead opposition remains stuck at around 25% since the 2019 elections. The fluctuations for both parties have only been slight, despite the enormous challenges facing the country, most of which are caused by external factors but some of which are purely domestic. So, how is it that ND’s popularity is not wavering and neither is SYRIZA gaining points at the conservatives’ expense? Supporters of the leftist opposition challenge the accuracy of the polls, as per their usual tactic of accusing any medium that does not support their interpretation of events of being a sellout. The more likely explanation, though, is that we’re looking at a stable trend resulting from the confluence of so many different sources of tension.
Upsets are possible in the runup to the next election (either in spring, or in the summer when the four-year term expires). The Ukraine war, the energy crisis, soaring prices, US-China rivalry and the possibility of a new Covid wave paint a bleak picture for the global economy, for the European Union and for every individual country. If the government is seen to manage these problems adequately and continues to inspire a sense of security in the people, it will probably see its popularity rise. If its policies and the money it is giving out fall short, however, it will take a political hit. This is why it has budgeted for more than 8 billion euros in electricity and natural gas subsidies in 2023.
The money coming in from the EU Recovery Fund will also give the economy a boost. As far as the war in Ukraine goes, Greece has taken a clear stance against Russia and is consistently proving itself a reliable ally to the United States. This is causing significant frustration in Ankara, which insists on keeping up the pressure in the Aegean and the Eastern Mediterranean. However, if Turkey becomes even more deeply embroiled in Syria and Iraq, it may back off on Greece and Cyprus. Either way, Turkish aggression is “good” for the government, in that Greece has over the past three and a half years demonstrated that it can respond to Turkish moves on land, at sea and in the air.
On the other hand, the wiretapping scandal, the affair with expelled ND MP Andreas Patsis and perhaps developments on the social front (the home auctions and evictions, the clumsy if not outright brutal handling of the media etc) may give SYRIZA a chance to reduce the difference with ND. That said, the ease with which SYRIZA hastens to accuse the government of being “authoritarian” and “dangerous to democracy” does not seem to be gaining any traction outside of its fan club. And the rhetoric of some of its more vocal members is alienating centrist voters.
A lot can influence how voters ultimately cast their ballots in the next few months. So far, however, and barring any major revelations concerning some scandal or a serious mishandling of an important issue, the problems are woking in the government’s favor – and not just because citizens need stability, but also because few have forgotten the consequences of the arrogant wishful thinking of 2015, that was later “justified” as a “delusion.” And this is having a stabilizing effect on public opinion polls.
