The hard part is ahead

So far, everything shows that we are heading toward the general elections with a consolidated correlation of political forces, which will now be very difficult to overturn. Little time remains and a lot of time has passed in which dramatic events have occurred both in Greece and worldwide. Still, these events have had little or no impact on the domestic political landscape as it was shaped after the elections of July 2019.

In cases such as these, it is customary to seek not only the reasons behind the success of the candidate leading in the polls, but also the reasons why the candidate trailing has failed to flip positions.

Since the summer, the government has been repeatedly attacked and this could have caused it considerable damage. Hence the constant anxiety over what the polls would reveal. In the end, the needle didn’t move in the political arena. Apparently, citizens believe that the government’s positive actions outweigh its negative ones, while they thought that the main opposition leader would have fared worse in the handling of the difficult situations faced by the prime minister.

Ruling New Democracy, given that it has been consistently polling first, has a clear goal: securing a clear majority. SYRIZA, on the other hand, will simply struggle to limit ND’s victory. At this point, what counts is what slogan will mobilize voters. An aggressive slogan or a defensive one?

If the road to victory for the ruling party seems relatively achievable, the post-election period will feature many difficulties. Even if a clear majority is achieved, it will be marginal. No matter how politically inclusive the new government becomes, the marginal parliamentary majority will not change. I estimate that on the night of the elections, which will be held with a system of proportional representation, Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis will have to answer the question: A majority with 152 lawmakers, or a coalition with 160?