High stakes in US midterms

“Whoever voted Biden owes me gas money,” say millions of posters and stickers on the back windows of massive semi-trucks across the United States, expressing the mounting frustration at the hike in fuel prices. This is, after all, why the American president’s advisers have for months been asking him to focus his campaign for the midterm elections on the economy instead of abortion rights and the January 6, 2021 storming of the Capitol by supporters of former president Donald Trump.

It’s a well-known fact that a significant mass of voters are interested mainly in their pockets: “It’s the economy, stupid,” as a Bill Clinton adviser once said. This is even more so now that the war in Ukraine is driving up inflation and the recession is spreading across the American economy.

Apart from criticizing energy companies for profiteering at the expense of the average citizen, US President Joe Biden, however, has not changed the direction of his pre-election campaign except in the last three weeks. This will doubtless have a negative impact on the performance of the Democrats. If the Republicans assume control of Congress, Biden will be in for a very tough time, as he will no longer have the majority to pass laws through the House and will have to resort to executive orders instead, as Barack Obama did.

This will inevitably create a sense that “Trumpism” is back and bolster Trump’s candidacy for the presidency in 2024. The divisions we see in American society today will deepen even further and strengthen far-right voices that are pro-church and opposed to gun control, central government and the individual rights of people of color and women.

In foreign policy too, the US is seen backing down on its support for Ukraine, as the Republicans are vehemently opposed to efforts to prop up the embattled administration of Volodymyr Zelenskyy with money and weapons.

And if Bob Menendez is replaced as chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, it is very likely that US foreign policy vis-a-vis our neck of the woods will also change. The most likely scenario, in that case, is that the voices in the State Department establishment seeking a more “balanced” approach toward Turkey will only grow stronger. And all that is just the tip of the iceberg of bad tidings that await us.