Erdogan’s message to the US ‘deep state’

As strange as it sounds, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s latest moves and statements are directed almost exclusively at the American “deep state.” That is, at the American officials who staff the State Department, the Pentagon and the National Security Council. What does the Turkish president say to them? That “with what you have done, you are increasing the tension in Greek-Turkish relations and will lead to a crisis that you will have to handle.”

The truth is, there is a receptive audience in Washington. Any move to upgrade or expand the American presence in Greece has met with the passionate reaction of a significant part of the American bureaucracy in the field of foreign policy. The first crucial battle was over whether to include the port of Alexandroupoli in northern Greece and the island of Skyros in the Greek-US bases deal. “Are you crazy? The Turks will get angry and we will be responsible if we set up bases there,” insisted the apologists for the Turkish positions. They eventually won the tug of war over Skyros but lost over Alexandroupoli, which later proved valuable to American planning because of the war in Ukraine.

Another battle was fought around the Greek prime minister’s visit to the White House and his speech to Congress. There was a strong backlash when it was planned, with the argument that it would anger Ankara – as was the case, as the escalation of Turkish aggression began soon after. However, had it not been for the intense behind-the-scenes intervention of leading figures in the Greek-American diaspora in President Joe Biden’s immediate environment, the visit and the speech might never have taken place.

Erdogan realizes, however, that he is losing the domestic game in the centers of power in the American capital. The statements of the State Department are becoming increasingly tough toward Turkey. The lifting of the embargo on the sale of military equipment to Cyprus was a highly symbolic move that “hurt” Turkey.

The Turkish president is increasing the pressure but at the same time he is doing everything he can to lose valuable allies. The meetings with the “dream team” of anti-Western leaders obviously do not help. Even Turkey’s most traditional supporters in the Pentagon are beginning to question its credibility as an ally. However, Erdogan is bargaining hard and the chorus of his remaining supporters continues, shouting monotonously that “Turkey must not be lost. Do not make other moves that will push it to the extremes.”

What does all this mean? That if things really come to a head one night in the Aegean, then the most important tug of war will unfold in Washington. It won’t last long, possibly only a few hours. At that moment, however, it will be of great importance what those who sit around Biden at the long table of the Situation Room in the basement of the White House will recommend. Just as was the case in 1964, 1967, 1974, 1987, 1996…