Consistency on elections and the wiretapping affair
The prime minister made the right decision in keeping the electoral law as is. Doing otherwise would have undermined the institution and opened Kyriakos Mitsotakis to criticism, not to mention alienating an important section of voters he is hoping to reach out to.
The electoral body does not reward those who make a mockery of institutions and procedures. Changing the law again during the same term would have served a serious blow to the PM’s credibility, given that he had dismissed such an eventuality as ridiculous just a few months ago and assured that he would play by the rules as this is the responsible thing to do.
By keeping the law as is, the prime minister sought to placate thinking voters – moderate centrists whose choice makes a difference and is critical in deciding the winner of an election – who are gravely concerned by the phone tapping affair and would not easily forgive such an unprecedented move as a second change to the election by the same administration, in the same term. Such a move could, in fact, have cost New Democracy a significant number of votes. What’s more, it is not at all certain that restoring the bonus seats to the leading party would have been enough to secure the necessary majority, so the governing conservatives would have been dealt a double blow.
Is the prime minister taking a risk? Of course. Under present circumstances, 38% – the threshold to form a one party government – will be tough, if not impossible, to achieve. Yet his decision sends a message of certainty and consistency, instead of fear and defeatism.
After all, 36% – the threshold of the law under which the last elections were held – would not have been easy either, especially if he had alienated a certain number of voters. Similar to his decision not to call elections before the end of his four-year term, Mitsotakis wants to show that he is not swayed by the recommendations of others.
Even if the wiretapping affair proves manageable and no additional revelations appear to worsen the situation to an unbearable extent, the winter lying ahead will be a difficult one.
As for New Democracy’s strategy, due to a shortage of potential coalition partners, the only way ahead is to aim for a one-party majority government. Neither centrist PASOK nor the right-wing Greek Solution are viable alternatives, each for different reasons. The tactics will include intense polarization and this is better served if the bar is set at a landslide victory. It is certainly not good for the country, which needs cooperation and consensus, but this is the reality.
The next eight months leading up to the polls will boil down to the government’s performance so far and its ability to manage the challenges lying ahead being pitted against the opposition’s ability to rise to the occasion, to steer away from populism and to exercise substantive criticism.
The citizens will judge, and they will vote. And if the outcome requires cooperation, the politicians will be judged as well.
