The importance of Cronos-1 to Cyprus
The fifth successive discovery of natural gas deposits in Cyprus’ exclusive economic zone – this time at a well named Cronos-1 – is the prize for the persistence shown by the Cypriot state in spite of an increasingly aggressive stance from Turkey.
The second of three Cypriot drilling expeditions planned for this year also represents a response to a string of false impressions cultivated by the proponents of appeasement – regardless of party colors – who stand against the process of exploration of Cyprus’ EEZ, the continuation of which they either held hostage to a resolution of the Cyprus issue or to the resumption of bicommunal talks.
In their view, failing to reach a resolution on the Cyprus issue would prevent the continued exploration and exploitation of Cyprus’ energy reserves because of the Turkish veto, while a solution could be provided by a moratorium on Cyprus’ drilling program, which would, in turn, bring a moratorium on Turkish reactions. They obviously failed to understand that such a moratorium would constitute a moratorium on the Cypriot Republic exercising its sovereign rights.
The other side of this same coin maintains that Turkish aggression will keep escalating as long as reunification talks remain on ice and that, therefore, the Greek Cypriots should not provoke Ankara with their obsession with their gas exploration program. Turkey will carry out more drilling with the Abdulhamid Han and likely within Cyprus’ EEZ as well, but it would not dare encroach on the drilling projects of the international consortiums which have led to the discovery of deposits – such discoveries being what really counts. This point of view holds that if Turkey does commit such violations it is only because the governments in Nicosia, first, and Athens, second, have failed to consistently pursue a policy of prevention on this particular issue by achieving European sanctions against Turkey. The result, the proponents of this view argue, is that Ankara is only further emboldened to act as it does.
It is important to keep watching developments and to maintain a firm stance. It needs to be made clear, right now, that Greece and Cyprus will demand – if necessary even threatening the usual vacillators in the European Council with a veto – European sanctions against Turkey that will include targeted and increasingly stricter measures if Turkish drilling operations discover Cypriot deposits and the country tries to exploit them in an underhand manner.
The discovery of potential deposits of 2.5 trillion cubic feet of natural gas may be small in terms of size, but it is huge from a geopolitical standpoint
At the same time, Greece needs to accelerate its procurement program for bolstering its navy (the decision on the corvettes and the Meko-class frigates appears to have stalled) and for Cyprus to – finally – purchase a serious mid- and long-range anti-missile system, as well as to modernize and increase the number of its Exocet anti-missile ships.
The discovery of potential deposits of 2.5 trillion cubic feet of natural gas may be small in terms of size, but it is huge from a geopolitical standpoint. It is smaller than Glaucus (4-5 Tcf) and Aphrodite (4-4.5 Tcf), but it is important because it is a tangible response to Turkey’s imperialist “Blue Homeland” doctrine. The position of Cronos-1, moreover, is so close to Glaucus that the two wells could potentially be exploited jointly – and particularly if the potential of Calypso is confirmed. This will become inevitable if a discovery of similar quantities is made at Zeus-1, the well that the ENI-Total consortium is currently drilling in Block 6, or in other parts of blocks 6, 7 and 10.
The combined dynamic of these potential deposits could comfortably fill an East Med pipeline if its path is redrawn so that Egypt’s participation in such a scheme could be secured in some way or another.
Dr Theodoros Tsakiris is assistant professor of geopolitics and energy policy at the University of Nicosia.
