Waiting for Putin

At the NATO Summit in Madrid, when Turkey agreed to the future accession of Sweden and Finland, Recep Tayyip Erdogan did not look like a man who had triumphed after keeping the military alliance hostage for several weeks.

Perhaps his scowl did not reflect only his concern as to how the memorandum of understanding would play at home, but also how the great absentee at the summit would see it, the man whose politics has breathed new life into NATO – Vladimir Putin. For years, Erdogan has balanced on two boats, exploiting the benefits of being a NATO member while ignoring the responsibilities that stem from this. Now he had to choose between NATO and Putin. 

In Turkey, the expectation was that Erdogan would not give in to pressure and would delay Sweden and Finland’s NATO accession. It is likely that Russians had the same opinion, if one can judge from the outrage on Twitter against the Turkish “betrayal.” The issue, though, is not so much whether Russian tourists are angry as what this will mean for Turkey’s occupation of part of northern Syria, where Turkey depends directly on Russia’s tolerance. In the past, Moscow has not hesitated to kill scores of Turkish soldiers to send a message to Ankara.

We do not know what made Erdogan sign on to an agreement which, in effect, opens the door to Sweden and Finland without committing them, or Turkey, as to final outcome. As Erdogan’s “triumph” will be delayed (like Turkey’s request to the United States for its F-16 fleet to be upgraded), why did he agree to the deal now? Was he given promises or subjected to pressures that he will not make public? What is certain is that he had to accept that Turkey needs to be part of NATO. And now that his tactics have irritated Turkey’s allies, he awaits Putin’s response.