Uncertainties

Many uncertainties lie ahead, a situation which really does not help. One major uncertainty concerns the war in Ukraine. No one can safely predict when this will end and what the economic repercussions will be. Major deals have been put on hold with those involved saying, “Let’s wait for the crisis in Ukraine to be over first.”

Tourism may also take a blow if the war lingers or escalates. Tired of the coronavirus pandemic and the lockdown measures, people are in the mood for a well-deserved break, but the developments may have a negative psychological effect on them.

As if this global uncertainty were not enough, we also have our local matters to worry about. Everyone knows that elections will be held in a year’s time, at the latest. At the same time, everyone knows that the simple proportional representation system introduced by the previous leftist government is a time bomb that poses a threat to the country’s political stability. Rather than being deactivated, that bomb became the subject of experimentation.

So we are facing the following uncertainties: Will the electoral law change? When will the elections take place? Will a party win an absolute majority in the second round? Many scenarios are being circulated. Ministers and advisers are engaging in this chatter, fueling confusion. Some officials have simply given up working while the country risks entering a state of idleness until the elections, whenever these take place. Foreign and Greek investors are waiting for things to clear up. In the meantime, of course, the pressure to hand out benefits and other aid will increase as the tsunami of price hikes affects everyone.

Answering these crucial dilemmas is no easy task. The prime minister is weighing all the available information and each scenario has its pros and cons. Do you correct a wrong electoral law or will it be viewed as an institutional faux pas? Do you hold snap elections when you know that the country will have to go through a period of instability, with an ongoing war raging in Ukraine?

There is not much one can do about international uncertainty. The same cannot be said about domestic uncertainty. One solution is to put an end to the cacophony which is confusing people and damaging the government’s image. Silence would be more advisable until the final decisions are made. No one says these are easy or self-evident; quite the contrary, in fact.