Why is Iran expected to attack Israel? What to know about the crisis
Less than a week after the killing of a top Hamas leader in Tehran, Iran, and a top Hezbollah commander in Beirut, the entire Middle East is on edge. Fears of a broader regional war have been mounting amid vows of revenge from Iranian leaders that have left Israel in a state of deep uncertainty.
Why is an Iranian attack expected?
Iran has vowed to avenge the death of Ismail Haniyeh, a senior Hamas leader who was killed in Tehran after he and other leaders of Iranian-backed militant groups attended the inauguration of the new Iranian president. Israeli leaders would not confirm or deny whether their country was behind the breach of Iran’s defenses, but Iranian leaders and Hamas officials immediately blamed Israel and vowed retaliation.
Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, issued an order for Iran to strike Israel directly, according to three Iranian officials briefed on the order.
And Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Nasser Kanaan, said Monday that “Tehran is not interested in escalating the regional conflicts, but it is necessary to punish” Israel.
How is Lebanon connected to the crisis?
The Iranian government has said that any retaliatory attack will also involve its proxy forces, which include Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and militants in Iraq.
Tensions between Israel and Iran’s proxies were already running high before the killing of Haniyeh, which took place the day after an Israeli strike in Beirut killed Fuad Shukr, a top-ranking commander of Hezbollah. The leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, said after the Beirut strike that the group’s conflict with Israel had entered a new phase and threatened a major retaliation.
Hezbollah has been engaged in tit-for-tat attacks with Israel for months amid Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza. Hezbollah has fired thousands of rockets and drones at Israel, professing to act in solidarity with Hamas, which is also backed by Iran. Israel has retaliated, as well as evacuating tens of thousands of its citizens in northern Israel near the border with Lebanon.
The World Health Organization said on Monday that it had delivered 32 tons of emergency medical supplies to Lebanon in case of a wider conflict.
Hours later, a rocket attack targeting US personnel housed at a base in Iraq’s western desert injured several American troops, according to American defense officials. The attack, on Ain al Asad Air Base, resembled previous ones carried out by Iran-backed Iraqi armed groups, which have targeted the base repeatedly over the past several years and intensified their attacks since the war in Gaza began in October.
What have Israeli leaders said?
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel said Sunday that his country was “in a multifront war against Iran’s evil axis” and was “prepared for any scenario – both offensively and defensively.”
Netanyahu added, “I reiterate and tell our enemies: We will respond and we will exact a heavy price for any act of aggression against us, from whatever quarter.”
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant spoke with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin on Monday and briefed him on the Israeli military’s “readiness to defend Israel against potential threats posed by Iran and its proxies,” according to a statement by the Israeli government’s press office.
On Sunday, Gallant said at an Israeli base: “We are prepared very strongly in defense, on land and in the air, and we are ready to move quickly to attack or to respond. We will exact a price from the enemy, as we have been doing in recent days. If it dares to attack us, it will pay a heavy price.”
What diplomacy is going on?
With Iran and its proxies threatening an attack on Israel, frantic diplomatic efforts are underway to prevent a wider war.
President Joe Biden convened his national security team to discuss developments in the Middle East and spoke with King Abdullah II of Jordan on Monday, a day after the Jordanian foreign minister, Ayman Safadi, traveled to Tehran for meetings with his Iranian counterpart. Jordan is a close Western ally and helped intercept Iranian missiles and drones in April during a tit-for-tat attack between Iran and Israel.
“Escalation is in no one’s interest,” Matthew Miller, the State Department spokesperson, told reporters in a briefing on Monday. He added that the United States did not consider escalation “inevitable” and was sending messages to Iran through its allies in the region that an attack would not serve Iranian interests or the region’s.
“The leaders discussed their efforts to de-escalate regional tensions, including through an immediate cease-fire and hostage release deal,” a White House description of the call said.
Egypt’s foreign minister, Badr Abdelatty, spoke with the American secretary of state, Antony J. Blinken, urging him to pressure Israel to “seriously engage” in cease-fire talks, the Egyptian foreign ministry said in a statement. Blinken “reiterated that all parties should refrain from actions that would escalate the conflict,” according to the State Department.
Gen. Michael E. Kurilla, who leads the US Central Command, arrived in Israel on Monday to complete coordination with the Israeli military in anticipation of a possible Iranian attack, according to the Israeli military.
Gallant said that Kurilla’s “arrival in Israel at this time is a direct translation of US support for Israel, into action.”
“The relationship between Israel and the United States is unshakable,” he said in a statement.
The Organization of Islamic Cooperation plans to hold a meeting of Arab and Muslim foreign ministers in Saudi Arabia on Wednesday to discuss “the continued crimes of the Israeli occupation,” including the assassination of Haniyeh, and Israel’s “aggressions” against Iran, the organization said in a statement.
How are Western governments advising their citizens in the region?
Countries including the United States, Belgium, Britain, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden urged their citizens over the weekend to leave Lebanon immediately.
France also urged its citizens in Iran to leave as soon as possible and to avoid travel to Israel or Palestinian territories. Canada urged Canadians on Saturday to avoid all travel to Israel because of “the unpredictable security situation.”
Several airlines had suspended or canceled flights to and from Beirut, and many flights were sold out. International airlines including Delta, United, the Lufthansa group and Aegean Airlines have also suspended flights to and from Israel. The flight disruptions have left many traveling Israelis unable to return home.
This article originally appeared in The New York Times.
