Study finds Athens temperatures could rise by 3.5°C after 2040 due to climate crisis
The average air temperature in the greater urban area of Athens could increase by more than 3.5 degrees Celsius between 2041 and 2070 compared to 1971-2000, due to the combined effects of climate change and the urban heat island phenomenon.
This finding comes from research conducted by Constantinos Cartalis of the University of Athens, a member of the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change. The study, part of the Climpact II project, is based on the new worst-case scenario from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
A temperature increase of this magnitude would significantly heighten future thermal risks in Athens from 2041 to 2070. Even currently, central Athens, Piraeus and surrounding areas face very high thermal risk, while the northeastern and eastern parts of Athens experience lower risks.
In an interview with the Athens-Macedonian News Agency (AMNA), Cartalis noted that Attica is reflecting broader weather trends in the Southeastern Mediterranean and globally, with increased frequency, intensity, and duration of heatwaves due to human-induced global warming over the past 150 years. The heatwaves in Attica during 2022 and 2023 exemplify these trends, combining high temperatures with prolonged duration, worsening conditions in many urban areas.
High and extreme temperatures can raise mortality rates among people over 65 by 20% and 35%, respectively
Cartalis explained that cities are particularly vulnerable to climate change due to the urban heat island effect. This effect results from lower vegetation coverage, higher absorption of solar radiation, and additional heat sources from cars, industry and buildings. Urban areas, therefore, cool down more slowly than rural areas, especially at night.
He also highlighted the impact of rising temperatures on electricity demand. Studies show that electricity consumption in Athens increases by 4.1% for each additional degree Celsius, while high and extreme temperatures can raise mortality rates among people over 65 by 20% and 35%, respectively.
The accompanying map illustrates thermal risk in Athens using five categories, ranging from very low (green) to extremely high (purple). The projected 3.5-degree temperature rise for 2041-2070 assumes a worst-case scenario with no reduction in fossil fuel use or further greenhouse gas emissions.
Cartalis emphasized the importance of research projects like Climpact in developing solutions to enhance a city’s resilience to climate change.
