Crete: Greece’s climate crisis hotspot

“Fires in the spring at altitudes over 1,000 meters, while there is a complete absence of snow, were unprecedented.” Speaking to Kathimerini, Vasilios Vathrakogiannis, a spokesperson for the Hellenic Fire Service, describes how firefighters were taken aback by the fire that erupted on April 13 in Omalos, a remote area within the Samaria National Park on the island of Crete.

For the second consecutive year, the fire season began on Crete two weeks earlier than the official date (May 1 to October 31). As stated in the announcement, “The fire season started earlier than ever this year due to prevailing high temperatures and limited winter rainfall, leading to an increased risk of fire ignition and spread.”

Vathrakogiannis underscores that Crete has its own unique characteristics. It experiences dry summers and often contends with low humidity levels. “The absence of rainfall has resulted in reduced moisture in vegetation. It’s important to note that we’re dealing with an island abundant in shrubbery. All these factors render it susceptible to fires,” he points out.

Rainfall even decreased to 40% last year, according to Georgios Papavasileiou, a postdoctoral researcher at the National Observatory of Athens. Rainfall remained scant in the early months of 2024. Conversely, the average temperature is rising, with 2023 ending with a half-degree Celsius deviation compared to the 30-year period from 1991 to 2020.

“By the end of March, unseasonably high temperatures were being recorded, and the trend persisted throughout April. This prolonged period of high temperatures, coupled with significantly reduced rainfall, creates an environment more prone to forest fires due to the accumulation of combustible material,” explains Papavasileiou. He further notes that this spring saw fires on the island, such as those in Ierapetra and near the Souda Naval Base, which rapidly escalated during an unexpected time for such incidents.

“Controlling both fires proved challenging for firefighting forces due to the preceding conditions and the prevailing meteorological conditions on the day of their outbreak and spread,” says Papavasileiou. Referring to the fire in Omalos, he emphasizes that “the prolonged absence of snowfall and rainfall resulted in depleted soil moisture, which explains the occurrence of fires at such high altitudes.”

The island can expect to experience progressively higher levels of dust in the coming years

Regarding the vulnerability to climate change of areas in the country, which is already testing other parts of the Mediterranean, he points out that “the risk of prolonged and even more intense periods of drought, along with extreme high temperature events in the near future, is more pronounced for Crete and southern Greece. It’s something we’re expecting.”

Snowball effect

Professor Nikos Michalopoulos, director of the Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development at the National Observatory of Athens and coordinator of the Panacea project, which investigates atmospheric composition and climate change, emphasizes that on Crete, the impacts will be much more pronounced and rapid compared to other regions of Greece – if they haven’t already become evident.

“The decrease in water availability on the island, the rise in temperatures, and the trend toward land desertification all point to the fact that the climate crisis is already having an impact on Crete,” the professor says.

Playing a pivotal and accelerating role in this challenging landscape emerging on the island are the southerly winds, which are partially responsible for transporting Saharan dust to Greece. “Even if not accompanied by significant dust events, they result in high temperatures,” explains the professor, adding: “Analyzing the data, we observe an increasing trend in the prevalence of southerly winds over the past 30 years. In 2018, southerly winds occurred every other day, and now, roughly speaking, we can say that in southern Greece, one out of three days during the spring months is dominated by southerlies. If this trend of southerly winds persists, we will consistently experience higher temperatures during this season compared to normal levels.”

During the blossoming period, the southerly winds adversely affect several plant species. “Take olive trees, for example. The warm air masses, especially when they’re moving swiftly, can damage them, while as regards other plants, they can destroy their flowers. In recent years, therefore, winds have also impacted productivity,” explains Michalopoulos.

A snowball effect is at play, he explains. “The impact on agricultural crops also affects water availability. The temperature rise accompanying the southerly winds leads to decreased soil moisture, resulting in increased water wastage in crops. Evaporating moisture is one of the factors that accelerates the greenhouse effect in the region, contributing to the feedback loop, as we call it. According to our Panacea study, 12% of the temperature increase observed in the Mediterranean is attributed to the reduction of soil moisture due to temperature rise.”

The soil becomes increasingly dry and brittle, losing its ability to absorb substantial amounts of water. “In addition to contributing to the rise in flooding events, this soil is undergoing decomposition. It’s highly likely that dust will begin to form on Crete at some point. Coupled with the trend of increasing southerly winds, Crete can expect to experience progressively higher levels of dust in the coming years,” explains Michalopoulos.

Regarding the residents of Crete, Michalopoulos underscores the significant burden they face from episodes of African dust. “The roughly 10 [dust] events they endure each year represent a considerable number. Dust levels on Crete consistently surpass those in the rest of Greece. During the most recent major event, occurring the day after the phenomenon of the orange sky in Athens, a staggering 700 micrograms was recorded. However, in Athens, these levels were recorded over a four-hour period, while on Crete, they persisted for 24 hours. The highest concentrations of dust were observed in the city of Hania, reaching a peak concentration of 928 micrograms. At the Akrotiri station, the maximum concentration reached 746 micrograms, far exceeding the health threshold of 50 micrograms according to current legislation,” Michalopoulos concludes.