A (reluctant) Turkish hug for travelin’ Dick Cheney
The Cheney Expedition finally arrives in Ankara today to deliver to Turkey’s leaders what they consider a «slow-fuse time bomb.» The trouble is, the Turks cannot refuse to accept the handle-with-care delivery. As part of a tour to sell a war against Iraq to skeptical countries, US Vice President Dick Cheney is arriving in the Turkish capital at a time when global and Turkish public opinion have not yet fallen in step with President George W. Bush. Mr Bush has apparently tasked Tony Blair, his man in Europe, to convince European leaders and Mr Cheney to convince the Turks and the Arabs that he must finish a job his father left unfinished a decade ago. During his trip through the Middle East, Mr Cheney heard repeated objections from Arab leaders that an American campaign to dislodge Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein would destabilize the region. This is more or less what he will hear from Turkey’s leaders too. But he is not coming to Ankara to hear some Turkish pontificating. His mission, rather, is all about delivering the time bomb and consoling the addressee. So he will tell Turkey’s leaders that (a) an American campaign to remove Saddam before year-end is very likely; (b) although he does not have war plans in his briefcase this time, future American missions to Ankara will discuss details of these plans; (c) the Turks should not worry about their territorial integrity; and (d) Washington would discuss with Ankara Turkey’s possible economic losses in the event of a military operation against Baghdad. Although Mr Cheney said soon after Sept. 11 that there was no evidence linking Iraq with the attacks, he has smoothly revised his rhetoric since then. «Our next objective is to prevent terrorists from threatening America and our friends and allies with weapons of mass destruction,» he told a cheering crowd of American sailors at the start of his Middle East expedition. The message was clear enough. Although he did not name a country, he was probably not pointing to Iceland or New Zealand. Turkish leaders, meanwhile, expect less American rhetoric and more straight talk about the post-Saddam situation and some relief for possible economic losses. They are particularly worried about the creation of a Kurdish state in northern Iraq, despite American assurances that Turkey’s territorial integrity would be safeguarded in the event of a military campaign against Baghdad. «I am worried,» said Mesut Yilmaz, Turkey’s deputy prime minister. «What we gather from our sources contradict the (American) assurances.» As for the economic losses, Turkey’s policymakers disagree with the country’s financial markets which, at the mere mention of the word «Iraq,» tend to plunge with or without reason, reflecting wider fears of total economic chaos. Turkish diplomats believe Turkey would reap considerable long-term economic gains in a post-Saddam picture as, inevitably, United Nations trade sanctions on what once was Turkey’s second major trading partner will end. They have a point. In addition to trade gains, Turkey may eventually lure more foreign direct and portfolio investment, once it has an open frontier in its southeast. The great irony is that the longer-term gains will likely more than offset any shorter-term losses. The whole thing is like a painful but necessary operation offering the patient relief in the long term. True, no one feels comfortable with a war next door, but no one volunteers for surgery either. It would be excessively optimistic if the Turks expected solid American commitments to cover their economic losses resulting from Operation Iraq, Episode 2. The standard US rhetoric on this matter is strong if not exactly comforting. In response to the decade-long Turkish complaints that the Americans have been too reluctant to cover Turkey’s Gulf War losses, Robert Pearson, the US ambassador to Ankara, said recently that Turkey’s losses would have been much larger had Washington not forced Iraq out of Kuwait. There is no reason why Mr Cheney should not repeat this argument during his meetings in Ankara. Hubert Vedrine, the French foreign minister, may find Mr Bush’s policy that «you are either with us or against us» quite simplistic. And Chris Patten, the European Union’s foreign affairs commissioner, may think that America is going into «unilateralist overdrive.» But things look different, and more realistic, in Ankara. Washington has already decided to remove Saddam, and Ankara – aware also of Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf’s political gains due to his support during Operation Afghanistan – has already decided to help its closest Western ally. Even Russia, Iraq’s main backer at the UN, has taken to distancing itself as part of an emerging strategic understanding with America. Ankara has decided «to be with Washington.» Mr Cheney’s talks in Ankara will be the start of a sometimes painful episode of negotiations to match Turkish and American interests.
