Complications in reaching migration deal
The recent spike in migrant flows, including from Turkey to Greece, has put the issue front and center in the revived talks between officials of the two countries now that bilateral relations have improved. But migration could easily turn into a source of renewed friction.
Greek officials do not say it openly, but think that Ankara, despite its official statements encouraging cooperation, has relaxed its border controls, once again weaponizing migration, although not to the extent it did in 2020, when it tried to push tens of thousands of migrants and refugees into Greece.
Turkey wants to pressure the European Union to provide more assistance in return for its cooperation in stemming migrant flows and cracking down on human traffickers; it clearly views the amount set in the 2016 agreement with the EU as inadequate.
Relaxing the visa requirements for Turkish tourists who want to visit Greece, especially the eastern Aegean islands that are close to the Turkish coast, is a priority for Ankara. In return, Athens wants to limit the duration of those visas to a few days. Expanding this visa regime for all countries in the Schengen Area is something that Greece could support but it would need EU approval. Also, taking in some of the 3.5 million Syrian refugees that are in Turkey must be negotiated with the EU, if the objections of Eastern European members can be overcome.
A third issue is to ensure Turkey’s cooperation to take back rejected asylum seekers.
A further complication comes from Turkish irrigation projects in the River Evros, which forms the bulk of the land border with Greece. The government fears that water diversion will make the Evros much more easily passable for aspiring migrants; that is why it has made completion of the border wall a top priority.
