Restart attempt with Turkey via US
Mitsotakis in much-anticipated meeting with Erdogan at NATO summit in Vilnius
Washington is cultivating conditions to promote a political settlement at the highest level in order for Greece and Turkey to move within a new framework, which includes new balances in Aegean armaments, negotiations for the resolution of disputes, and the consolidation of the atmosphere of calm in a region of the Eastern Mediterranean deemed critical for NATO.
US President Joe Biden’s commitment to immediately advance to Congress the $20 billion package for the acquisition of new F-16s and their weapons and upgrading of existing ones by Turkey, which followed Ankara’s retreat on the issue of Sweden’s NATO membership, is the broader context.
At the same time, however, the process of starting negotiations with Athens on the F-35 is expected to move forward, while some “conditions” set by the US to Ankara on the F-16 are also expected. Interestingly, before the Swedish membership deal was finalized, Canada was persuaded by the Americans to lift the arms embargo against Turkey (Middle East Eye). The development is significant as parts of the Turkish UAVs (targeting and tracking systems and sensors) are Canadian technology.
Within this context of Washington’s moves, Greece has a slight advantage (F-35), while Turkey is being given the opportunity to close the gap on the air power side while keeping the export momentum of the drone industry.
Government sources note that four years ago Turkey was to be equipped with a hundred F-35s without any restrictions, while now the deal to sell the F-16s is expected to include restrictions for use by Congress. The same sources said that these restrictions by the US authorities were supported by years of Greek efforts.
Washington also continues to see energy as a roughly self-evident area that can bring Greece and Turkey together. For now, however, confidence building measures (CBMs) and positive agenda processes appear to be on the horizon, while the next round of exploratory contacts will be launched in due course.
As for Wednesday’s meeting between Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Erdogan, there is guarded optimism in Athens that the window that has opened can be used to initially take steps to consolidate the positive atmosphere in Greek-Turkish relations and, in a second phase, to start discussions on the resolution of existing issues – but not those that Ankara has put on the table at the expense of Greek sovereign rights.
