The threshold for a ‘safe’ outright majority

If the combined vote of the parties that will remain outside of Parliament in the June 25 election is between 6% and 9%, the crucial threshold for New Democracy in order to win a “safe” outright majority (in the region of 158 seats) will be 40%. 

ND leader Kyriakos Mitsotakis wants his party to win a “safe majority” of 158 seats in order to govern with stability.

The percentage of parties outside Parliament is expected to decrease substantially compared to May, as some of them, such as Sailing for Freedom (Plevsi Eleftherias) and/or Niki, are expected to enter Parliament, but also due to the abstention of some voters who had chosen smaller formations in the first election.

Generally speaking, if, as polls suggest, the percentage of parties that will stay out of Parliament amount to between 6% and 9%, then in the case ND gets 38%, the target of 158 seats is out of reach.

With 38% this seat target can be achieved with 14% for the parties outside the Parliament. In fact, in this case it is likely that there will not be an outright majority of 151 seats, which would be achieved with 8% outside the Parliament. 

In order to get 158 seats with 38.5%, this would entail 12% for the parties outside the House, while a marginal outright majority is achieved with 6% for the parties outside the House.

At 39% and 39.5%, the 158 MPs’ target is achieved with 11% and 9% respectively for the parties outside Parliament.

This “safe” outright majority starts to become more certain with 40%. With this percentage and 7% for the parties outside the Parliament, ND would receive 158 seats. With 40.5%, the 158 figure is achieved with 6% for the parties outside the Parliament. With the same percentage (40.5%) and 7% for parties outside the Parliament, then ND would get 159 seats.

For every 1% that the parties outside the Parliament go up, ND would get an additional seat. With 41%, which is close to what it got on May 21 (40.8% to be precise) and 7% for the parties outside the House, ND would get 160 MPs. Accordingly, there onward, one seat will be added for every additional 1% that remains outside the House. In fact, with 9%, which is within the projections, ND would gain 163 seats.