Uneasy alliances point to runoff

As Greeks prepare to cast their vote in general elections on Sunday, none of the likely alliances that had been discussed in previous weeks between different parties appears feasible, making a runoff that much more likely.

Incumbent and poll favorite New Democracy is determined to achieve a clear lead on Sunday that will bring the formation of a single-party government in the runoff within reach. If this target proves elusive, the only option for the conservative party would have been a partnership with PASOK, polling in third place. Such an alliance now appears impossible and not just because the head of the socialist party, Nikos Androulakis, has repeatedly ruled out power sharing with ND head Kyriakos Mitsotakis or main opposition SYRIZA’s Alexis Tsipras.

In the past few days, Mitsotakis has also expressed his opposition to such an alliance, in no uncertain terms. “There is little to talk about with Mr Androulakis,” he told Kathimerini in an interview. At a press conference on Sunday, meanwhile, the prime minister accused PASOK of edging closer to SYRIZA and said that he does not “regard Mr Androulakis as a force of progressive modernization,” arguing that an alliance with the socialists would slow decision-making down.

The prime minister’s recent comments are seen as a sign that not only is an alliance with PASOK firmly off the table, but also that the already personal rift between Mitsotakis and Androulakis has been widened by the former lashing out at the latter by name and setting the socialist president apart from the party’s voters. From a tactical perspective, it appears that the prime minister is already thinking ahead to the second round and regards PASOK voters as crucial to giving him the majority he would need to form a single-party government.

The past few weeks had also seen widespread speculation of a partnership between ND and Kyriakos Velopoulos’ ultra-nationalist Greek Solution, but this possibility has disappeared completely in recent days, after Velopoulos accused the conservatives of having a hand in the ouster of one of his MPs, Antonis Mylonakis, which the lawmaker has denied. Regardless of this tiff, the two differences separating the two parties are seen as too significant to bridge, leaving PASOK voters as the key to ND’s success in the second round.

Progressive coalition

The other buzzing rumor mill concerns SYRIZA and what it plans to do. If the main opposition party manages to refute the public opinion polls and lead Sunday’s race, it would, theoretically, be in a position to form a government with PASOK and a few of the smaller left-wing parties. The numbers may add up, but as Mitsotakis has said, there are “thorns,” starting with the equations.

For the slimmest majority of 151 MPs in Greece’s 300-seat House, any party would need 46.5% of Sunday’s vote, with the parties that fail to achieve the 3% threshold to enter Parliament accounting collectively for 8%. SYRIZA could indeed clinch a percentage of 46.5% if it teamed up with PASOK and MeRA25, but a political agreement between the three is very unlikely. Apart from dismissing the likelihood of working with a government headed by Tsipras, Androulakis has also said that he would not work with the “drachma lobby,” a comment that is seen as a direct swipe against MeRA25’s Yanis Varoufakis.

The other scenario concerns SYRIZA coming second in Sunday’s election – which is the most likely outcome, according to the polls – and still seeking to form a coalition. In this case, however, the terms of any such partnership would be even harder to agree on. Apart from the problems in the SYRIZA, PASOK and MeRA25 relationship, such a government would also have trouble establishing its legitimacy.

The president of SYRIZA has rejected the possibility of forming “a government of losers,” but the same cannot be said for several influential party officials, such as Yiannis Dragasakis, who recently broached the subject.

In both scenarios for a “progressive government” led by SYRIZA, the Greek Communist Party (KKE) is seen as another likely partner in a bid to “get Mitsotakis out,” even if it means a government with a shaky majority in Parliament. KKE, for its part, appears opposed to such a partnership, with its leader, Dimitris Koutsoubas, speaking of a “phony progressive government” in last week’s TV debate between party leaders. He also warned Tsipras to stop playing with fire, by making tacit overtures to KKE. The SYRIZA chief is obviously aware of the limitations of such a coalition, but he has nevertheless chosen to keep the channels of communication open with all the parties to his left – also, apparently, with an eye on the runoff.

The others

Another scenario that has been widely discussed is the possibility of ND securing just under 150 seats in Parliament and looking for the support of MPs from other parties in order to climb to 151 or above. This likelihood is only applicable to the second round, which will be carried out under a system with an enhanced majority, and not the first, which is to be carried out under the system of simple proportional representation and will yield well below 150 seats.

This is another scenario that Mitsotakis has ruled out, telling Kathimerini that “New Democracy will not form a single-party government with any MPs that have not been elected with ND.”