Athens realistic about day after in Ankara

The referral of the Turkish presidential elections to a second round between the incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the coalition of six opposition parties led by Kemal Kilicdaroglu did not make a serious impression in Athens.

Despite the noise, it was clear the opposition’s initial surge in recent days had reached a very specific ceiling of around 45-46%. 

Furthermore, no one believes there is a realistic chance the current balance in Erdogan’s favor will change, especially given the atmosphere within the opposition coalition after Sunday’s disappointing results. 

In Athens, as it has been repeatedly publicly stressed, there are no illusions about the prospects for a change in Turkey’s strategy regardless of the outcome. 

The apparent prevalence of Erdogan, who actively promotes and applies the “Blue Homeland” doctrine and wishes to transform his country into a pillar of power with increased independence from the West, does not change the basic scenarios for Greek-Turkish relations in the coming period. 

However, as Kathimerini noted two weeks ago, political and diplomatic circles in Athens believe a final term in office may also impress on Erdogan the need to build a legacy, which would include economic reconstruction and the resolution of disputes with Turkey’s neighbors. 

Although this is officially presented as Ankara’s wish, it is overlooked that it will have to be achieved with specific conditions that are far from likely to be acceptable to Athens. 

Nonetheless, many officials in Athens believe Erdogan’s re-election is probably preferable for Greece than the rise to power of a disparate coalition. Of course, in both cases the main parties have been grafted with nationalist ideology.

For his part, Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis has repeatedly stated his willingness to meet with Turkey’s president whenever needed, as well as his realistic expectations. It is also clear that whatever happens in the Greek elections, there is political will in Athens to exploit the window of calm that opened after February 6 and the devastating earthquakes in Turkey. 

Moreover, despite the apparent discomfort in Washington at the prospect of Erdogan leading Turkey for another five years, there is also a will to not let the window of opportunity for negotiations between Athens and Ankara close, even if steps are required even in the summer after the July elections in Greece.