Election favorites must rally voters

On the final stretch to the May 21 election, the two largest parties – ruling conservative New Democracy and leftist opposition SYRIZA – are concerned about the gap between them and the votes of the smaller parties vying to reach the magical 3% threshold that will allow them to be represented in Parliament.

All recent opinion polls give New Democracy a comfortable lead and a SYRIZA victory would come as a big surprise, as well as cast doubt on the validity and accuracy of those polls. With the certainty of no party achieving an overall parliamentary majority and with most pundits believing a coalition government will be unlikely, both parties view the result of the election more like a primary ahead of a second round, likely in early July, and the likelihood of a single-party government emerging from that one.

A comfortable win for either party would increase its chances of forming a government after the second election without the need for a coalition partner. The 30-seat bonus provided to the winner by the electoral law under which that second election will be contested will help, and will also make the specter of a third election, unwanted by all since it would prolong a period of uncertainty, recede. A parliamentary majority will also depend on how many parties enter the House – the more to do so, the less likely an overall majority for the winner – but also on the votes for small parties that fail to elect MPs.

According to the latest poll by research firm Pulse, commissioned by Skai TV, New Democracy will win between 32.1% and 37.9%, while SYRIZA will get between 25.7% and slightly over 31%. The possible combinations range from a resounding victory for New Democracy to a nail-biter that could lay the ground for a SYRIZA victory in the second election.

This makes it imperative for both big parties to motivate their voters to go to the polls instead of abstaining or, secure in the knowledge that a second election will happen, registering a protest vote for small parties. They must also win over the undecided ones. While recent polls show that SYRIZA has a bigger problem rallying its voters, they also show New Democracy lagging in that department relative to the 2019 election, which it won, 39% to 31%. New Democracy officials hope that ultra-nationalist Greek Solution may not make it into Parliament in the second round of voting.