Party staffs mulling post-May 21 scenarios
Correlations being considered after the first elections with an eye on the July 2 ballots
As the election period enters the final stretch, the parties are considering alternative scenarios for the outcome of the May 21 ballot and their handling of the crucial phase of the exploratory mandates that will follow, with ruling conservative New Democracy maintaining a clear poll lead over leftist SYRIZA and center-left PASOK moving into double-digit percentages.
Party staffs acknowledge that the context that will be formed on the night of the upcoming elections, which will, most likely, be followed by the formation of a caretaker government that will lead the country back to the polls, will have a catalytic effect on the correlations of July 2, when the second election is expected to be held, with the new electoral law.
The desirable scenario for Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and the ruling New Democracy party is to secure a percentage of 34% or more in the elections of May 21, which will be a threshold for achieving a single-party government in the second round and at the same time for PASOK’s percentage to be such that the the prospect of forming a coalition government is ruled out from the outset.
On the contrary, the most difficult equation for the ruling conservatives will be the possibility that New Democracy and PASOK will have more than 151 members of Parliament. This is because in this case it will not be exactly clear “under what rationale and under whose responsibility” the country will be led to elections again.
Moreover, it is not lost on the government, main opposition SYRIZA and PASOK that the public would would want to see an effort made to form a government the day after May 21 elections.
Tellingly, in the latest Pulse poll for Skai, when asked, “If no independent government emerges in the coming elections, what would be the best thing to do?” 21% answered, “Try to form a coalition government at all costs,” 27% answered, “Try to form a coalition government and if it doesn’t work… new elections,” and 34% said, “New elections as soon as possible.”
Although Mitsotakis is keeping his cards close to his chest even from close associates, senior government officials believe that the country will be headed for a second election, even though a meeting with PASOK leader Nikos Androulakis is likely to take place as part of the prime minister’s mandate.
