Kasidiaris ban reshuffles right-wing pack

The Supreme Court’s decision to ban jailed former Golden Dawn deputy leader Ilias Kasidiaris’ party from participating in the upcoming national elections is shaping a new political landscape.

According to all the recent polls, if it took part in the elections, the National Party would receive enough votes to enter the next parliament, thus reducing the percentage of the parties outside the Parliament and raising the bar of single-party government close to 38%, maybe even higher.

But with Kasidiaris’ party out of the running, the debate now is how the voters who would have backed him will move, and how the other parties will respond as the election campaign enters the final stretch.

For ruling New Democracy, the ideal scenario after the Supreme Court’s decision is that the votes of Kasidiaris’ party will be dispersed to smaller right-wing parties that will, however, remain out of Parliament.

This is what will determine the percentage required for a single-party government since if the percentage of parties outside the Parliament approaches 10%, the bar for a single-party government will fall to about 37.5%. With an even higher percentage, around 12%, the required percentage will fall below 37%, which is a figure the conservatives consider absolutely feasible in the second elections.

From the point of view of purely electoral interests, the ideal scenario for SYRIZA would be for one of the right-wing parties to succeed in entering Parliament, raising the single-party government bar for ND. 

For nationalist Greek Solution leader Kyriakos Velopoulos, the latest developments are seen as a window of opportunity to increase his vote count. Similarly, other right-wing parties with some appearing close to 2% also have an opportunity to gain.

For his part, Kasidiaris has stated that he will not support any other party in the elections.