Rail collision report expected to come out before national elections

The government is trying to plan for the difficult days ahead, following the national tragedy in Tempe, central Greece, where two trains collided, killing dozens and injuring scores of passengers. The prime minister’s office will need to take immediate decisions to strengthen the safety of rail transport, manage the expected fierce political confrontation with the main opposition over the crash, but also decide on the date of the upcoming elections, as April 9, which is viewed as the most likely, can no longer be considered as a given.

The first challenge for the government will be to demonstrate that Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis’ public pledge to shed light on the deadly train crash is sincere and will be kept, but also that, even in retrospect, initiatives are being taken to improve safety on the country’s railways. With these thoughts in mind, the government has decided on three actions:

First, the formation of an independent experts committee to investigate the causes of the railway accident and examine the longstanding delays and omissions in implementing railway projects which led to the tragedy at Tempe. The government wants the resulting report to be completed “in weeks, not months,” which means it wants to make it public before the elections.

Second, it wants to accelerate projects for the modernization of infrastructure by addressing, for example, any problems relating to existing tenders. The goal is for the automatic operation system and signaling to be completed throughout the network by September, as planned, or even earlier.

Finally, the government wants to reinforce – with the existing means – the safety rules for railway routes, until the upgrade projects that have been launched are completed. In this direction, it could be decided, for example, to place two stationmasters at all stations.

The dilemma

The second issue for the government is the political management of the train crash, as it is assumed that main opposition party SYRIZA will focus its criticism on the handling of the tragedy in the time that remains until the elections, regardless of when they are held. It is certain that the government’s approval rating will suffer as a result of the accident, as it happened at the end of its four-year term. The Prime Minister’s Office recognizes this reality, but believes that it will still come out on top when compared with the term of the previous administration. “It is clear that during New Democracy’s term the country’s modernization progressed in some sectors, while in others it did not. In the case of state-run railway company OSE, the latter is obviously the case. The question is who can push the company forward in the future: Mitsotakis or Tsipras?” government sources said.

At the same time, it is pointed out by government officials that unlike the 2018 deadly wildfire in east Attica, which some have mentioned as a measure of comparison, the train collision at Tempe shows the chronic problems of the Greek state, but also the decisive role of human error. Furthermore, no attempt was made to cover up the tragedy or shift blame, as Transport Minister Konstantinos Karamanlis submitted his resignation a few hours after the accident, and Mitsotakis accepted it. Finally, it is emphasized that in other cases where serious problems were identified during his term of office, such as the catastrophic fires of 2021 and snowstorm Medea, Mitsotakis didn’t shy away from self-criticism and took initiatives to ensure that such problems are not repeated.

Election date

Mitsotakis is expected to decide whether he will stick with his original plan to hold the elections on April 9 or if he will postpone them for later – with the most likely date being May 14 or 21. He put a stop to any discussion about the time of the elections at his office in the last few days as a sign of respect to the memory of the dead and their families, but also because of the sadness and anger affecting society. If the initial date is kept, then the government will have to settle outstanding issues such as passing a series of bills and picking a date for the dissolution of Parliament.

Those who believe that the elections should be delayed claim that the tragedy in Tempe will gradually fade into the background, while some even point out that the 40-day memorial services of the victims will coincide with the election day. Some officials note the tragedy will be a central issue in the political confrontation regardless of when Greeks go to the ballot box. They also point out that it would be inconsistent with Mitsotakis’ profile to appear to make crucial decisions based on petty party interests. There are also government officials who are postponing the polls until a week after Orthodox Easter – that is, on April 23. The only disadvantage of this option is that the second round of elections will be held in the midst of nationwide university entry exams. This happened in 2012 and no problems were recorded.

The protest vote

All parties are awaiting the new round of opinion polls toward the middle of next week that will reflect the political impact of the tragedy. A question that preoccupies party staffers is whether the tragedy has triggered the anti-systemic reflexes among a portion of the voters – especially younger ones. This particular scenario is strengthened by the fact it will gradually become clearer that the responsibility for the state of the railways are long-standing and lie with every party that has governed.