Possible outcomes of April elections

With the elections just around the corner on April 9, the possible scenarios that may arise after the first and second ballots are being meticulously scrutinized by parties and analysts alike. 

The first election will be held with the simple proportional representation system while the second one will be with reinforced proportionality whereby the party that comes first get 50 bonus seats.

The first scenario sees no government being formed in the first election and ruling New Democracy forming a one-party government after the second.

For this to occur, the conservative party would have to receive more than 37%, perhaps even 37.5%, in the second election. The exact figure will depend on how many parties are left out of Parliament, as the higher their cumulative percentage, the lower the threshold for a one-party government will be. ND would have to get more than 33-34% in the first election.

The second scenario foresees ND failing to reach the threshold for a one-party government in the second election. In this case, ND will either have to go to a third election, or seek alliances – most likely center-left PASOK.

Scenario number three involves a ND-PASOK coalition from the first election. If, in the first polls, PASOK’s percentage is particularly high and that of ND is not the expected one – i.e. around 30-31% – then a discussion about a coalition of the two parties can be opened from the beginning. In this case, PASOK would have to have received a high percentage, close to 15%, to justify its entry into the government, but also in order for the two parties to secure 151 MPs in total.

Scenario four provides for a SYRIZA-PASOK coalition with MeRA 25. For this to occur, SYRIZA must come first and the parties must gather more than 45% to 47%. This government will de facto be very unstable, since it is not expected to have more than 151 or at most 152 MPs.

The fifth scenario is a “government of losers” whereby SYRIZA, PASOK and MeRA25 will form an alliance from the first elections, without SYRIZA being the first party. 

There is also one more possible scenario, which foresees ND so close to forming a government that it would only need a few MPs to exceed 151 seats – possibly from the far-right Greek Solution, although cooperation between the parties has been rejected categorically.