The profile of undecided voters
Stability and cost of living appear to be main criteria, rather than the recent scandals
With elections looming, Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and SYRIZA leader Alexis Tsipras are seeking to rally their traditional voters and hunt for the undecided ones who will largely shape the final correlations in the first ballot of simple proportional representation.
One of the biggest bets for the ruling conservatives and the leftist opposition party is how to reel in undecided voters, who according to the qualitative and quantitative polls have specific party origins, but also demands in order to make their final choice at the ballot box. Most public opinion surveys number these votes in the region of 10%. Of these, about half were former ND and SYRIZA voters and the rest backed the smaller parties. The 5-6% that in the previous election, in 2019, had chosen the two main candidate parties and are now moving in the gray zone. The main criteria set by these voters that will sway them either way are which party will ensure stability and which can best tackle the cost of living.
In light of the above, Mitsotakis appears to have a comparative advantage over SYRIZA due to its positions on specific issues, such as migration or the arms programs, as well as its past term in office.
As the main opposition party, SYRIZA can more easily bank on the issue of rising prices, which has emerged as the number problem for the majority of citizens and certainly for the body of undecided voters. Mitsotakis is trying to balance this by touting the support measures taken so far.
After the implementation of the commitment for less taxes in 2019-23, the PM will showcase the project for the next four years, which will be “better wages.”
Interestingly, despite the fact that a large proportion of undecideds are averse to scandal and extreme polarization, Tsipras is largely obliged to pursue a particularly high-toned campaign in order to rally his electoral base and others who want the current government to be defeated.
Mitsotakis prefers the pre-election debate to focus on the programs and the comparison of governmental achievements and SYRIZA.
According to estimates, both parties have so far rallied their respective bases at a percentage hovering just under 70%. Polling insiders say that during the corresponding period in 2019, ND and SYRIZA showed significantly higher clusters, in the regions of 80% and 70% respectively
