Economy will determine election result
More than half of the respondents in a recent survey cited inflation as their main concern
With the clock towards next year’s likely double election already ticking, it is becoming clearer every day that the result will hinge on the state of the economy.
This is a tried, and perhaps tired, trope, but the saying that “the economy elects governments” has an especially pertinent salience as the effects of the war in Ukraine are strong, and everywhere.
The most recent opinion survey, published last Wednesday by research firm MRB, shows that 51.9% of respondents choose inflation as the most important issue. Each of the other issues that appear – from the tensions in Greek-Turkish relations and unemployment, and from migration to the scandal of the hidden income by former New Democracy MP Andreas Patsis, who was kicked out of the ruling party’s parliamentary group – fails to be named as the top concern of more than 12% of the sample.
Despite the fact that Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis is credited for his swift response with generous state aid to a series of crises, from the pandemic to soaring prices, his predecessor, and current opposition leader, Alexis Tsipras, has chosen the economy as his preferred field of battle. Other issues, from Greek Turkish-relations to state surveillance, even child abuse, have fallen flat, even raising objections within Tsipras’ SYRIZA party as to how the leadership has handled them.
Mitsotakis will rely on his record and the perception of him as an agent of continuity and stability. He will say he maintained the country on a fast growth track amid the successive crises, he made good on his pledge to cut taxes and he will promise not to indulge in the usual sport of pre-election handouts without regard for the country’s finances.
At the same time, Mitsotakis will have to juggle the remaining funds available for household and business support against the changing needs: according to a survey by research firm Pulse, 45% of households were concerned about their electricity bills last March, but only 31% in October, while those concerned about food prices rose from 13% to 28% in the same period.
Despite the fact that most Greeks understand inflation is a global concern, the worries about disposable income create a climate hostile to the government. To profit from this, Tsipras would have to somehow reduce floating voters’ skepticism about his own record while in government.
