Weary Bulgarians fear more political turmoil after latest election

Bulgarians bracing for their fourth election in less than two years face a winter of want amid soaring inflation driven by the war in Ukraine, making many yearn for good government and stability after years of political turmoil.

At stake is the next government’s ability to tackle rocketing energy costs and secure gas supplies at affordable prices after Russia’s cutoff in April over Bulgaria’s refusal to pay in rubles following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

But fractious coalition-building is expected to drag out after the October 2 vote amid deep rifts within the political elite over how to root out entrenched corruption, and the failure of a smattering of new parties to build a sustainable voter base.

Like many Bulgarians, public employee Zaharinka Kokalova fears no end to the chaos that began with an inconclusive election in April 2021 and ensued through two more ballots and, later, the collapse of a reformist government in June.

“I am afraid about having no government,” Kokalova, 62, said, seated on a couch in her kitchen in Davidkovo, a poor village in the Rhodope mountains of southern Bulgaria.

“I fear things will get worse. Without a government prices are going up and life becomes more stressful.”

In an effort to adapt to the inflation accelerating across Europe, Kokalova and her husband plan to reduce the sizes of their food portions and use cheaper firewood this winter.

What she will not do is change who she typically votes for–the Socialist party which promises more government handouts–when she goes to vote in Sunday’s snap parliamentary election.

Opinion polls suggest the centre-right GERB party of former prime minister Boyko Borisov, 63, who won five elections between 2009 and April last year, is likely to prevail again–but with about 24% of votes.

GERB, as well as other traditional Bulgarian parties, such as the Socialists, the ethnic Turkish MRF party and anti-corruption Democratic Bulgaria, are seeing their support largely unchanged from the last election.

There is a sense of voter stagnation with low turnout likely to be around 40%, underlining the mounting disillusion among Bulgarians over endemic graft and dysfunctional political infighting in what is the EU’s poorest member country.

“Two thirds of Bulgarians say there should be a government after the vote and at the same time close to two-thirds do not believe it will happen,” said Boryana Dimitrova, an analyst with independent pollster Alpha Research.

“Political parties exude a sense of helplessness on forming a government.”

Failure to tame inflation and control the fiscal deficit could force Bulgaria to postpone plans to adopt the euro common currency in 2024.

Bulgaria’s future relations with Russia are also in question, after Sofia jettisoned its traditionally warm approach to ties with Moscow over the devastating invasion of Ukraine.

Borisov is widely expected to struggle to form a functioning coalition if his party comes first as opinion polls suggest, with many across the political spectrum accusing him of allowing corruption to fester in Bulgaria.

Support for the PP party, led by Kiril Petkov, whose reformist government was toppled in June after just six months, has edged down to under 20%, although the centrist grouping is expected to come second on Sunday. read more

Both GERB and PP believe Bulgaria should deepen links with Euro-Atlantic partners, pledge support for Ukraine, promise to shield people and businesses from crippling energy costs, and want to boost Bulgarian living standards.

Petkov’s cabinet increased state pensions and public salaries but his four-party coalition was fragile and many voters were disappointed by the lack of clear results in fighting high-level graft.

Hristo Gadzhalov, 78, a retired teacher from Davidkovo, said the pension hikes were too limited to offset inflation that hit a 24-year high of 17.7% on an annual basis in August.

“I do not expect anything from the election. I expect second and third rounds of elections after that,” he said. “When I see the squabbling going on, I personally have no desire to vote.” [Reuters]