Milder East Med scenario
The Abdulhamid Han drilling ship sets sail for area north of Cyprus
The most restrained scenario of those foreseen by Athens regarding the exploratory activity of the Abdulhamid Han drilling ship was announced by Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan from the port of Mersin.
Erdogan announced the deployment of the floating drilling rig in an area 29 nautical miles from Gazipasa, essentially on the boundary of the Gulf of Antalya, within the Turkish continental shelf.
Based on the Navtex notified almost immediately, the Abdulhamid Han, a state-of-the-art vessel operated by the Turkish Petroleum Corporation (TPAO), will move in this area until October 7.
The selected area was seen to signify, despite the show put on in Mersin on Tuesday and the rhetorical excesses, a desire for a period of calm in the Eastern Mediterranean.
According to some estimates, by late September there will be a relatively accurate picture of the situation in the target area, where the Abdulhamid Khan will be drilling exploratory wells. The next step will be for TPAO to decide whether to extend the operation or proceed with others.
It is believed in Athens that Erdogan’s stance has been influenced by the intensive diplomatic behind-the-scenes initiatives during the previous period as well as Erdogan’s internal calculations. The messages that had reached Athens from Washington and Berlin contributed to a direction of strategic balancing on Erdogan’s part. At least on the part of Washington, the pressure on Ankara throughout the previous period was intense and in the direction of the need to maintain NATO unity at a time when the credibility of the Alliance is being tested, amid the war in Ukraine.
However, there is no sense of complacency in Athens given the long-term characteristics of Turkey’s foreign policy. As Erdogan himself noted on Tuesday, after October the Abdulhamid Han will continue drilling elsewhere.
