Polls still favoring the ruling party

The ruling center-right government appears to be enjoying a steady lead in the polls despite the pressure of higher power prices on households and businesses.

The persistence of a fairly wide lead, although not as wide as several months ago, seems to have convinced Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis that his insistence on going to the polls at or near the end of his four-year term, in July 2023, is correct, Kathimerini understands, after speaking to several people in direct contact with Mitsotakis.

It is widely expected that two national elections will take place in quick succession: the first, fought under the proportional representation law passed by the previous SYRIZA government at a time when it was already expected to lose the next election, will almost certainly result in a Parliament with no party having an overall majority. A coalition government being extremely unlikely, a second election will be fought under a law voted by the present Parliament, which gives a bonus of 30 seats to the winning party.

Mitsotakis is also certain that he will not amend the electoral law he himself passed to increase the bonus, as some in the ruling New Democracy party want. On the basis of recent polls, he believes he can scrape through with a small majority in the 300-seat Parliament.

Of course, conditions can still get significantly worse for the government. However, an analysis of recent polls shows that, since 2007, the leader in the polls a year away from the election has not lost their lead in the final stretch – not in any of the six elections that have taken place since. 

Mitsotakis’ interlocutors also base their optimistic assessments of victory on three factors in the final stretch: the package of electricity price subsidies that will kick in next month and will last one year; an expected tourism boom; and the many projects funded by the European Union that will get under way in early 2023.