President Trump will be ‘impervious to challenge’

George Stephanopoulos{BLA_WRD_TXT} has had the rare privilege of having experienced the US elections from both sides: politics and journalism. He was communications director of Bill Clinton’s 1992 presidential campaign, before being appointed White House communications director for four years. 

Since 1996, he has been working as a television host and political commentator, co-anchoring “Good Morning America,” and hosting “This Week,” ABC’s Sunday morning current events news program.

Despite being on the front line for more than three decades, Stephanopoulos declares that he has never experienced an election like Tuesday’s. “It has been the most unusual, unprecedented election cycle of my lifetime – and probably in American history,” the Greek-American journalist told Kathimerini’s Executive Editor Alexis Papachelas. 

You’ve been part of many elections, both from within political campaigns and as a journalist. Is this campaign different, and if so, why?

There is nothing normal about this entire election cycle. This is unlike any campaign I have ever been involved in, whether as an operative, as a policymaker, or as a journalist. We have never had a candidate for president who refused to accept the results of the last election. We have never had a candidate for president who is a convicted felon. We have never had a candidate who has been found liable for sexual abuse by a jury. We have never had a candidate who has been found liable for civil fraud and been impeached twice. Any one of those things I just mentioned would, in any other time, be absolutely disqualifying. Yet, as we head into this election, just a couple of days away, Donald Trump has a very good chance of becoming president of the United States again. It has been the most unusual, unprecedented election cycle of my lifetime – and probably in American history. 

How difficult is it to be a journalist in today’s US climate?

It has been incredibly challenging because we are in an environment where, for a large portion of the country, the actual facts behind the debates – rather than just the feelings – do not matter. We have never seen anything like this where, for example, a candidate can go through an entire election repeating a big lie about the last election, and it has no impact. I should not say no impact, but it does not appear to be disqualifying to at least half the country at this point. Therefore, it makes it very challenging. In addition, Donald Trump floods the zone with news and with outrage in a way that is almost impossible to put into perspective. We have boxes we use to cover campaigns. We have 22 minutes a day to do the news. We feel like we have to show both sides. We also get caught up in a dynamic where if you are simply pointing out the facts, it appears to a significant portion of your audience that you are being partisan. 

Do you think things would have been different had Biden stepped down back in March?

It is hard to know because there are so many different factors that do not appear to affect the base level of Trump’s support. But that is a big debate inside the Democratic Party right now. Had he gotten out much earlier, had there been a contest for the nomination, would the Democratic nominee be stronger? Or, you can flip it around. Many people believe that perhaps Kamala Harris was helped by the fact that she was turbocharged immediately into the general election campaign, and she did ride a great wave of momentum through the first debate, which appears to have stalled out – not irrevocably – as we head into the last 48 hours of the election. It did seem that Donald Trump had a bit of a comeback after the debate she won decisively.

What should we watch for on Election Day? What factors, aside from swing states, could make the difference?

The big divides you’re going to be looking for are whether Donald Trump draws a disproportionate turnout from men, particularly white men, especially young white men who haven’t voted before. If that is happening, he is likely to do very well, if not win. Or, do we see women, and especially young women, voting in numbers like they’ve never voted before? That is going to be good news for Kamala Harris. This is also disconcerting for those of us who cover campaigns because the polls are showing a relatively tight, dead-tight race. But if they are wrong in the way they were wrong in 2020, Donald Trump is going to win easily. If they are wrong in the way they were wrong in 2022, Kamala Harris is going to win easily. So, we are all flying blind in a way. 

Do you think there’s a chance of a landslide, one way or the other?

I would not be surprised by almost any outcome. I would not be surprised by a 270 to 268 Kamala Harris win. I would not be surprised by Donald Trump sweeping all seven battleground states and having a formidable Electoral College victory, even if the national polling is close. I would not be surprised if Kamala Harris wins three to five of the swing states – they are all close, but they all tip the same way at the end. And that kind of uncertainty has led to a lot of anxiety across America right now because nobody really knows. 

Some speculate that if this election is very close, particularly if Trump loses by a narrow margin, there is a real risk of civil war or events similar to January 6. Do you agree?

I don’t know. I don’t know about a civil war, but we have already seen Donald Trump lay the groundwork for this. If it is close and he is behind, he is going to say it is unfair. He is going to say it is fraud. And his allies in the states that matter and his allies in the House – they’ve said it – will do everything they can to find a way to make sure he gets into office. 

And if Trump is re-elected, do you think Trump 2 will be different from Trump 1?

There would be no guardrails in Trump 2. Look at all of the former Trump aides, top national security officials, who have come out and called him a danger to democracy, even a fascist. Not only his Chief of Staff, John Kelly; not only the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mark Milley; but even his own vice president doesn’t support him. His former Attorney General has said that he could be a danger to democracy if he gets in again. You’ve got a host of national security officials – his former National Security Adviser, John Bolton; his former Secretary of Defense, Mark Esper; his former Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson – all who say he’s a danger to democracy. The most damning indictments of his character and competence come from those who worked most closely with him in the national security realm. But those guardrails will not be there in a second term. One other very important factor: the Supreme Court’s decision on presidential immunity last June means that almost anything President Trump does, even if he is in office, is impervious to challenge. 

If you were watching from Athens or elsewhere in Europe, what would your main concerns be?

Europeans are going to have to take care of themselves. Donald Trump has made it very clear that he does not value the NATO alliance in the same way other American presidents have. I think it’s fairly clear, given what he’s said on the campaign trail – his praise of Vladimir Putin, his praise of President Xi in China, his cozying up to dictators like Kim Jong Un and Viktor Orban in Hungary – that we’re going to have a very different character of American foreign policy. Probably the most immediate impact, based on every signal he has sent, is that the support we have seen from the United States and the rest of NATO for President Zelenskyy in Ukraine is likely to evaporate quite quickly. 

So who do you think is going to win?

I would not bet a penny on the outcome – that’s how uncertain I am.