Top Greek-American pollster sees a ‘divided USA’
David Paleologos, director of Suffolk University Political Research Center, discusses which way candidates may go and key issues for the undecided
Anyone who has been keeping a prudent eye on the polls of this year’s US presidential election knows that the race is still practically a toss-up. Despite Kamala Harris emerging as a favorite to win the national popular vote, most swing states remain well within the margins of error. As the race is moving to the last weeks, pollsters are working fervently to capture the sentiment in the country’s most critical states.
David Paleologos, director of the top-rated Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston, Massachusetts and one of the pioneers of the bellwether model, which zooms in on crucial counties to better assess how states may vote, has also been working around the clock. Six weeks before the face-off between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, the Greek-American pollster who accurately predicted all seven Senate races in 2022, sat down for a chat with Kathimerini English Edition, discussing the state of the presidential race, the challenges of polling in the Trump era, and the issues that trouble the minds of the average undecided voter in the US.
Many don’t know what to make of the current polls coming from the US, as in the past some of them consistently underestimated Trump’s numbers. How can we work around these past shortcomings when interpreting this year’s polling data?
Most university polling is a good resource. We are essentially non-partisan, so we don’t have a dog in the fight per se. When you think about the polling data, you must also consider methodology ratings by different polling aggregators like FiveThirtyEight. Suffolk has done well in the accuracy ratings, not only in 2022, but in the last five election cycles. Looking at this year’s polling, one of the first indices that I would have you look at is the recall question, which is basically asking voters who they voted for in 2020. If there is a big gap when it comes to Trump’s past voters, that should be a red flag. A lot of the top pollsters use the recall question to keep a necessary check and balance in their results.
You recently polled in the swing states of Pennsylvania and Michigan, both state-wide and by using the bellwether model. In both cases, there was a Harris lead, though it was quite close. What does this tell us about her chances for a pathway to the presidency?
To be clear, if Harris wins Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, she gets the 270 electoral votes and wins the election. If the Blue Wall votes Democrat, it doesn’t matter how Trump performs in the remaining critical states. That is the single most important dynamic when people are looking into the US right now.
On our Pennsylvania poll we had two bellwether counties showing a Harris lead anywhere from 3 to 5 percentage points. Michigan was a little closer: Harris led with 2% nationwide, and 3% in the bellwether county. All those statistical tests were within the margin of error, but they were all important and pointing in the same direction.
Where things get a little bit tricky is with the different options. In Michigan, the ballot has a total of eight presidential candidates. If you’ve got someone who’s on the fence, or the Israel-Gaza war is really affecting how they view the current administration, they may lean Democrat but could end up voting for Jill Stein or Cornel West. That could hurt Harris and potentially help Trump win Michigan. Pennsylvania is a little bit more clear-cut, as there are only four choices on the ballot. But it is important to remember that polls are just a snapshot in time. There is a lot of movement yet to come.
‘Right now, it seems like undecided women are still not going to vote for Trump. Roe v. Wade is too strong of an issue, and Trump’s behavior is too offensive to them’
Most undecided voters make their mind up in the last few days before the election date. What are some key indicators that can help us determine how the momentum is shifting as we’re moving into the last part of the race?
In the closing weeks of 2016, when focusing on the undecided voters, we looked at the cross-tab with the popularity of the candidates. We found out that most of the undecided voters disliked both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, but the intensity level against Clinton was higher.
I would apply the same model this year. In the closing weeks, look at the undecided to see whether there is a higher or more intense negative sentiment towards one of the candidates. Right now, it seems like undecided women are still not going to vote for Trump. Roe v. Wade is too strong of an issue, and Trump’s behavior is too offensive to them. Undecided men tend to lean more towards Trump. However, there will probably be more women voting than men in the presidential race, so maybe there is a slight edge to Harris on that front.
But undecided voters keep telling us in the polling that they don’t know where Kamala Harris stands on several issues. They don’t know what her policies are, they need more information. The Harris campaign must figure out how they can change that, disseminating information to undecided voters without potentially putting her in a compromising interview or a situation where she may lose their support.
Here’s the thing: When you think about the people who are third-party voters, we in the United States often mock them. We say they’re wasting their vote, that they’re not engaged and are living in a dream world. But think about their power: Those 1% or 2% of voters could move an outcome in Pennsylvania. If Pennsylvania is the state that hinges the whole election, then those very disconnected, non-partisan voters could have an enormously powerful impact on the election.
Many have called this election the tightest race in recent history. You’ve been doing this for over 20 years now, so do you agree with this assessment?
It definitely depicts a picture of a divided USA. Unfortunately, there are very few gray areas left in the United States. You’re either Trump or you’re Harris, and there’s really nothing in between. The third-party voters are important in a few states, but that’s pretty much it. That delineation makes this a very close race.
People don’t have enough information to create a Harris landslide. On the other hand, people know way too much about Donald Trump, some people love him, others despise him. That’s what keeps this race deadlocked, but I don’t think necessarily this is predictive of what happens in the end. We could have a major hurricane like we did in 2012. We could have a stock market crash like we had in 2008, which hurt John McCain against Barack Obama. We really don’t know what lies ahead. Our job is to record and poll as accurately as we can as news events happen and situations change.
What is one demographic that you think may end up being crucial in this year’s presidential election?
Young men are the big question mark this year. We’ve had “soccer moms” in the past – I believe someone’s going to coin a term for young men this time around. We are seeing interesting things: Young black men are not as hot on voting for Kamala Harris as they’ve been with the Democratic candidate in the past. We’re going in the field next week, in Arizona and Nevada, to find out more about young Hispanic men.
But young men, especially those less educated and with less income, are finding a more comfortable place with Trump. They’re saying to us in polls that their life was better when he was president, despite his personal shortcomings, remarks and behavior. They are telling us they could pay their bills; they could go out to eat and didn’t feel stressed out about their credit card balance. That’s a big challenge for Kamala Harris, who is part of the incumbent administration. She must defend the idea that the economy is better than they think and that better days are yet to come.
