Election result won’t affect Greek-American ties

Whoever wins the US presidential election, the Greek-American relationship – which has been “exceptionally close” in recent years – will remain unaffected, says Kurt Volker, the US special representative for Ukraine during Donald Trump’s presidency, in an interview with Kathimerini. Volker describes Greece as a “solid EU anchor to the Balkan region” and a key ally in the Eastern Mediterranean, playing a crucial role in projecting US military power in the Middle East.

A traditional Republican who served as the US ambassador to NATO under President George W. Bush and later became the executive director of the McCain Institute for International Leadership, Volker notes that if Kamala Harris were elected president, US foreign policy would see little change. However, if Donald Trump returned to the White House, there would be a coordinated effort to strengthen America’s global role, with increased pressure on Iran. Additionally, a Trump presidency would likely push NATO allies to take on more responsibilities in Europe, allowing the US to focus on Asia and its strategic competitor, China.

Regarding the war in Ukraine, Volker does not foresee peace being achieved anytime soon. He believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is waiting to see if the US elections will affect Western support for Ukraine, aims to conquer all of Ukraine and re-establish the Russian Empire.

On Turkey, Volker points out that it acts consistently in its own interests, which sometimes align with, and at other times diverge from, those of other NATO members. He believes that stronger cooperation in areas of shared interest would help manage disagreements.

Volker attributes recent crises to actions by Iran, from Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7 to the attacks by the Houthis and Hezbollah. In this context, he argues that instead of focusing on calls for de-escalation, the US should clearly warn Iran that it will face severe consequences if it continues this behavior.

How do you see the war in Ukraine developing? Any chance peace can be achieved anytime soon?

I do not see any chance for peace being achieved in Ukraine anytime soon. The main reason for this is that Vladimir Putin is still determined to eliminate Ukraine – taking over all of the country and replacing its government. He still believes that he can restore the Russian Empire.

First, he wants to see the result of the US elections and to consider how that might impact further Western support for Ukraine. But regardless of the outcome of the US election, Putin won’t stop attacking until he realizes that there is nothing more he can achieve in Ukraine, and that anything he tries will only result in the further weakening of Russia. That will require continuing aid to Ukraine, and Ukraine continuing to establish a position of strength. Already, by inflicting major Russian casualties in Donbas, invading the Kursk region, and conducting more and more effective drone and missile strikes, Ukraine is beginning to establish such a position. But it may take until sometime next year or even the year after before we will begin to see an end to the war.

What can or should the US do in the crisis in the Middle East, Israel’s war in Gaza, the threat from Iran?

The United States needs to realize that all of the crises in the Middle East have been deliberately sparked by Iran: the Hamas attack on Israel, the Houthi attacks on Israel, as well as Western interests and international shipping, and the Hezbollah takeover of Lebanon and attacks on Israel from there. Iran calls this its “Ring of Fire” around Israel and has never relented on its quest to eliminate Israel as a state.

‘Turkey has many other interests that sometimes align and sometimes diverge from the interests of other NATO members’

The US is pushing for de-escalation.

Instead of continuously calling for de-escalation, which Iran takes as a signal that the United States will not respond to Iranian-sponsored attacks, the United States needs to make clear to Iran that there will be direct consequences for Iran if it continues this aggression in the broader Middle East region. The US should also work to revive the US strategic partnership with Saudi Arabia and the UAE and to renew progress in the Abraham Accords process, as Saudi Arabia and Israel actually have a shared strategic interest in regional peace and a common front against Iran. Finally, the US approach of calling for a ceasefire first, and hostage release to follow, needs to be changed, as it only rewards Hamas for taking and keeping the hostages. We should instead work directly with Israel on hostage recovery and extraction while maintaining maximum pressure on Hamas. A ceasefire should follow the release of all the hostages, not be a precondition.

What are your expectations of a Trump or Harris administration, both on the world stage, but also with respect to Greece?

With Kamala Harris, I do not think we will see much change from the policies in place under the Biden administration. With Donald Trump, I think we will see a concerted effort to re-establish a position of American strength in the world, including greater pushback on Iran and pressure for Allies to do more in Europe, so the US can focus more on Asia.

In either case, I do not see a problem for Greece. The US-Greek relationship has been exceptionally close and productive in recent years, and I believe this would continue under either presidential candidate.

As the presidency of Joe Biden is coming to an end, how do you assess his foreign policy?

Unfortunately, during the Biden presidency, our major, non-democratic adversaries in the world all felt they could press their agendas with little or no US response. They no longer felt deterred. The catalyst for this was the catastrophic US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Not only did it signal a US retreat – it signaled a fundamental discomfort with the exercise of US power. For example, once Kabul was taken over by the Taliban, the US refused to allow its forces to leave the Kabul airport to rescue American citizens who were trapped. The images of fleeing Afghans falling from the wheel wells of departing military aircraft were devastating, and our adversaries took note. This contributed directly to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Russia-Iran alliance, Iran’s attacks on Israel (including through proxies), and China’s increased pressure on Taiwan and in the South China Sea.

Is Turkey still a reliable ally?

Turkey will reliably act on its own interests, and one of these fundamental interests is to preserve the Article 5 collective defense commitment of NATO. It will not destroy the Alliance or accept any weakening of Article 5. That said, Turkey has many other interests that sometimes align and sometimes diverge from the interests of other NATO members. To manage differences, the United States needs to have a more robust strategic dialogue and engagement with Turkey – for example, about the Black Sea, Russia, Ukraine, Iran, Iraq, Syria, and energy policy. Stronger cooperation in these areas would make it easier to manage areas where we disagree.

How do you assess Greece’s role in the East Med and the Balkans?

Greece plays a vital role in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Balkans – as an ally in projecting US military capabilities in the Middle East region, in developing alternatives to Russian-dominated energy supplies, and in providing a solid EU anchor to the Balkan region, which is ultimately what will lead to stabilization, prosperity, and long-term security in the region.

Serbia has once again become a source of deep concern, promoting a version of Serbian nationalism and regional domination that threatens stability in Bosnia, Kosovo and North Macedonia, and is undermining the independence of Montenegro. Greece can play a helpful role by both engaging with Serbia as a neighbor while pushing back on this kind of destabilization, and at the same time building closer relationships and promoting democratic institutions, economic development, and European integration among the other Western Balkan states.