Early Greek vote inevitable after SYRIZA mutiny, analysts say

Early elections are inevitable in Greece after Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras suffered a mutiny by dozens of outraged government lawmakers as he pushed austerity reforms through parliament in order to win a new EU bailout, analysts said Thursday.

Tsipras clinched a broad majority in favor of the reforms in the overnight vote with the backing of pro-European parties — but the package was opposed by a quarter of his own lawmakers including three cabinet members.

Even people close to Tsipras said Thursday that with so many MPs from his hard left SYRIZA party potentially blocking key reform bills in the near future, early elections could not be avoided.

"Elections will quite likely be held in September or October, depending on developments," Interior Minister Nikos Voutsis told Sto Kokkino radio.

Many in Greece have described the demands in the latest EU bailout package worth 86 billion euros ($94 billion) as humiliating and accused Tsipras of betrayal after voters said "no" to fresh austerity measures in a July 5 referendum.

"The government can only last until September with the help of the opposition," said Manolis Alexakis, a professor of sociology at the University of Crete.

"We will not avoid political developments by the end of the year," added Thomas Gerakis of polling institute Marc.

Out of 149 SYRIZA MPs, 32 voted against the measures, six abstained and another lawmaker boycotted the vote, which took place after a heated parliament debate.

"It was surreal, lawmakers saying they back the government but not the measures," Gerakis said.

The rebels included flamboyant former finance minister Yanis Varoufakis, parliament speaker Zoe Constantopoulou and Energy Minister Panayiotis Lafazanis, the head of the SYRIZA hardliners who favor a eurozone exit.

Government spokesman Gabriel Sakellaridis acknowledged that the party — which swept to power after snap elections in January — had suffered a "major division".

And SYRIZA daily Avgi acknowledged that the 40-year-old premier had been wounded.

"When one loses a quarter of ones parliamentary strength in a vote on an agreement bearing the signature of the PM and party leader… there is no doubt that one has emerged badly hurt," Avgi said.

Elected in January on a pledge to eliminate austerity and erase the bulk of Greece’s massive public debt mountain, Tsipras had no choice but to accept the creditors’ demands for further cuts to keep the country in the euro.

After five months of cat-and-mouse talks, Athens on Monday agreed to a third EU bailout in return for tax hikes, pension reforms and a series of privatisations.

"I had specific choices before me: one was to accept a deal I disagree with on many points, another was a disorderly default," Tsipras said in an impassioned speech to parliament before the vote.

Alexakis said Tsipras was now a "hostage on two fronts" in the immediate future — his next moves now limited by the wishes of the SYRIZA dissenters but also the other parties.

Both he and Gerakis agreed that a reshuffle was imminent.

"A reshuffle is certain, in the direction of helping to implement the measures. By next week at the latest. He cannot go on with ministers who did not back him in parliament," Gerakis said.

Another batch of measures tied to the three-year eurozone bailout faces a parliament vote on July 22, and is expected to be opposed by SYRIZA dissenters.

Governments in Greece are considered to have lost their parliamentary majority when they have fewer than 151 lawmakers in the 300-seat chamber.

But to avoid endangering Greeces economic rescue, Tsipras’ political opponents are not expected to force his downfall — for the time being.

"We will not be calling a vote of no confidence at the present time… why should elections be held?" said Evangelos Meimarakis, acting leader of the main opposition conservative New Democracy party.

New Democracy is ill-prepared for a ballot as its chairman Antonis Samaras resigned earlier this month, and the socialist PASOK party also recently switched leadership.

Tsipras insisted in parliament that his lawmakers were not "suicidal" to bring down a government still popular with the people.

"Governments fall mainly when they lose their support in society. Ours has not," he said.

Political commentator Nikos Dimou said Tsipras was likely to emerge stronger from a fresh ballot.

"Most Greeks do not want to return to the drachma," he told AFP.

"SYRIZA would win again, and by an even wider margin than last time," he said. [AFP]