Greece-Turkey: Discussion on maritime zones delimitation should wait

It’s been more than a year of calm waters between Greece and Turkey and suddenly tensions seemed to have flared up again.

Earlier this week, Turkey hit out at Greece for its plans to declare two marine parks in the Aegean and the Ionian seas ahead of the Our Oceans Conference taking place in Athens next week.

The Turkish Foreign Ministry said it would “not accept fait accompli” Athens’ decision and even advised “third parties, including the EU, not to become a tool for Greece’s politically motivated attempts regarding environmental programs.” It was a stark reminder that Turkey’s claims of “gray zones” remain on the table.

Greece’s Foreign Ministry accused Turkey of “politicizing” environmental issues and said it “upholds the sovereignty and sovereign rights of the country within the framework of foreign policy principles.”

Ioannis Grigoriadis, research fellow of the Hellenic Foundation for European & Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP) think tank and head of the Turkey Program, said that the tone of the Turkish Foreign Ministry statement is out of sync with the recent joint Greek-Turkish initiatives to promote a positive agenda in low politics and detente in issues of high politics.

“Yet I don’t think that this can lead to an escalation ahead of President [Recep Tayyip] Erdogan’s visit to Washington DC and Prime Minister [Kyriakos] Mitsotakis’ visit to Ankara. All sides have an interest in the success of these visits and a calm summer tourist season in the Aegean,” he added.

In an opinion piece published in Kathimerini, Angelos Syrigos, ruling New Democracy MP and associate professor of international law, argued that the Turkish rhetoric is absolutely the same as that of the announcements that the Turks have accustomed us to after the 1996 Imia crisis. But the question is why now.

“A first explanation is related to the sensitivity the Turks have with anything that has to do with uninhabited islands in the Aegean,” Syrigos said, adding it also might have to do with an overall reassessment of Turkish foreign policy after poor results of Erdogan’s party in the recent municipal elections.

Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) performance in the municipal elections was disappointing, with the governing party securing below 35.5% of the vote, dropping to second place in the nationwide tally for the first time since its first victory in 2002 and losing control of a number of municipalities and local councils it used to rule.

Analysts have already warned that after the electoral defeat Erdogan could become more unpredictable, opt for polarization and will be forced to make new concessions to his ultra-nationalist partner Devlet Bahceli.

“Building trust for the resolution of the maritime zone delimitation disputes appears difficult,” said Grigoriadis. “The results of the recent local elections in Turkey and the upcoming EU elections in Greece are likely to make this even more difficult.”

Diplomatic sources in Athens also hinted at the fact that any substantial progress on this front seems difficult.

Despite the repeated meetings between PM Mitsotakis and President Erdogan, as well as the two foreign ministers and deputy foreign ministers, the issue of maritime zones has not been put on the table yet, the sources underline.

In his public statements Foreign Minister George Gerapetritis refers the issue to the future, noting that any such discussion could start “when the conditions mature.”

A Turkish delegation is slated to attend talks on confidence building measures (CBM) in Athens on April 22, followed by a meeting in Istanbul on April 26, according to diplomatic sources. Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis’ visit to Turkey has yet to be scheduled but is anticipated in mid-May.

The conditions could be mature for the discussion of maritime zone delimitation “when a climate of mutual trust is consolidated, the agreements signed under the positive agenda on migration and civil protection are faithfully implemented, but also when there is adherence to the basic principles of international law,” diplomatic sources said.

At the moment, the sources said, Athens’ main priorities are: maintaining the calm in the Aegean and the Eastern Mediterranean and preventing the existing disagreements, which have also been reflected recently in the successive Turkish NAVTEX and NOTAMs, from taking on uncontrolled dimensions and, above all, from generating crises.