US trying to unblock triangle of its own making
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken opened his latest Mideast tour with two stops in Greece and Turkey, with a double mission in mind: Confirming the two NATO allies’ commitment to US priorities in the region – a task that is easier for Athens and trickier for Ankara – and making sure that the improvement in relations between the two neighbors and traditional foes seen in recent months continues.
When it comes to the latter, however, US fighter jet sales are instrumental. The Americans had, from the start, tried to disconnect Ankara’s bid for the acquisition of US-made F-16 fighter jets and upgrade kits from Turkey’s approval of Sweden’s NATO membership, which is still pending. Washington had also indicated that it would not link the F-16s to Greece’s request for F-35s, which has been pending in its final stage since June 2023.
Turkey was officially kicked out of the F-35 program in 2019, following its acceptance of the S-400 Russian-made defense system. The US is concerned about Ankara’s relationship with Moscow, but also more recently about its stance. Greece’s acquisition of the fifth-generation jets, meanwhile, will give its military power a qualitative advantage in the Aegean Sea.
‘The US is sending a message of relative weakness to Turkey and a message that their perception of Ankara is currently completely transactional’
In Turkey, however, the latest message has been that the F-16s would be the quid pro quo for the final approval of Sweden’s NATO membership and that approval for their acquisition would go to Congress in the same package with Greece’s F-35s. In Greece, the message is that the long-awaited fighter jets’ sale will soon be approved.
“A triangular relationship has thus been created,” said Constantinos Filis, director of the American College of Greece’s Institute of Global Affairs and ACG professor of international relations.
“Blinken wanted to hear from Turkish authorities that the last step on that road, which is ratification by Turkish Parliament, will happen as soon as parliament becomes functional again, after its recess. So, namely, on January 15 or right afterward,” says former Turkish diplomat Sinan Ulgen, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Europe think-tank.
Then, Ulgen says, the US will need to move on the State Department’s formal notification to Congress, regarding the F-16s, which is likely to happen in combination with a similar notification for the delivery of the F-35s to Greece.
“The US is sending a message of relative weakness to Turkey and a message that their perception of Ankara is currently completely transactional. This is a mistake by the American side. When you have a transactional perception of a country that is less powerful than you, you give it leverage,” said Filis.
“The US seems powerless to promote, among NATO members, a top choice for the alliance, Sweden’s accession, in the midst of war at a climactic moment in history,” he added.
Greece has taken a very clear stance both on the war in Ukraine and the one in the Middle East and has provided very important facilities for American interests. The latest move bolstering US interests is Greece’s participation in Operation Prosperity Guardian to protect merchant shipping routes through the Red Sea, as noted by Blinken during his visit to the Greek island of Hania on Saturday. The operation faces hurdles, with several countries being hesitant to join.
Having done all this, Greece rightly “feels annoyed” by the triangular scheme that has been created, says Filis.
“The US has managed to get everyone against it for some reason – at least one – and when you have issues with Greece, with which you are really going through the best period historically, it points to an issue of strategy,” Filis adds.
