Bank of Greece sees recession at just 5.8% this year

The Bank of Greece projects the country’s economy to contract by 5.8% this year based on its baseline scenario, but a second wave of the coronavirus could bring the economic contraction up to 9.4%, according to the 2019-2020 monetary report published on Monday.

The Greek central bank spoke of significant uncertainty over the course of the disease and the global environment, so it has flanked its baseline scenario with two alternative ones.

The BoG sees the 5.8 % contraction this year followed by V-shaped recovery by 5.6% in 2021 and a 3.7% growth in 2022. The European Commission has predicted a 9.7% contraction this year in Greece.

Bank of Greece's "mild scenario," referring to a smooth return to normality after this spring’s lockdown, provides for a 4.4% shrinking of the gross domestic product in 2020 before a 5.8% rebound in 2021 and a 3.8% growth the following year.

The adverse scenario of the central bank, incorporating a new wave of Covid-19 in Greece, projects to a 9.4% decline of GDP in 2020, a 5.7% rise in 2021 and a 4.5% expansion in 2022.