Bond yields hit fresh all-time low after ND wins election

Greek government bond yields fell sharply to new all-time lows on Monday after snap elections which saw Greece’s opposition conservatives return to power, sparking hopes there will be a renewed focus on strengthening economic recovery.

Elsewhere, euro zone bond markets reversed some of the sharp yield rises seen on Friday after better than expected US jobs data prompted investors to speculate that the US Fed would not cut rates by as much as expected.

Greece’s opposition New Democracy returned to power with a landslide victory in snap elections on Sunday, and Prime Minister elect Kyriakos Mitsotakis said he had a clear mandate for change, pledging more investments and fewer taxes.

The win appeared driven by fatigue with years of European Union-enforced belt-tightening, combined with high unemployment, after the country almost crashed out of the euro zone at the height of its financial travails in 2015.

Greek 10-year bond yields fell by 14 basis points in early trade to hit new all-time lows of 2.016%, reversing the 12 basis point yield rise on Friday.

The yield has fallen over 200 basis points since the start of the year, and outperformed Italy, partly fuelled by the hope that New Democracy would take power. Five-year Greek bonds fell 12 bps were 1.046%.

The European Commission and euro zone finance ministers should grant Greece short-term fiscal leeway under the condition that Mitsotakis indeed delivers the promised reforms to strengthen the country’s supply potential, wrote Berenberg chief economist Holger Schmieding in a report on Monday.

“For Greece and the Eurozone as a whole, this would be a win-win deal,” he said.

Germany’s 10-year government bond yield pulled back from the sharp rises seen on Friday, and was last down 1.6 bps on the day. It has recorded its biggest one-day jump in almost three months on Friday, tracking US Treasuries after data showed employment in the United States rebounded strongly in June.

After Friday’s strong US non-farm payroll readings, traders have scaled back expectations the Federal Reserve will cut rates by a hefty 50 basis points at its next policy meeting on July 30-31. But they are still expecting a quarter-point cut.

[Reuters]