Too many ‘zombie’ firms in 2021 weighed on NPLs
Nearly one in 10 firms in Greece in 2021 were “zombie” companies, according to a recent report by the Foundation for Economic and Industrial Research (IOBE), which revealed that 4,500 of 51,000 firms surveyed were at least 10 years old and had an interest coverage ratio of less than one percentage point for three consecutive years.
Stressing that such a large number of underperforming firms harmed healthy competition in the product and service markets, IOBE found that the ratio of “zombies” rose between 2004 and 2013, from 10% or 3,400, to 18.6%, or 7,200 companies. However, their number started to decline in 2014, dropping from 16.5% or 6,900 to 8.9% and 4,500 companies in 2021.
The study links the increase in the number of companies that struggle to repay the interest on their loan obligations over the course of several years to the non-performing loans (NPL) crisis, going on to highlight the need for measures to prevent a repetition of the phenomenon.
IOBE notes that a high NPL burden negatively affects credit expansion rates, while the reduction of NPLs frees up resources that stimulate credit expansion. Based on estimates with an average value of business loan stock close to 85 billion euros for the period 2010-2023, every reduction in non-performing business loans by 1 or 5 percentage points leads to new annual net flows of business loans of €200 million or €1 billion, respectively.
As a result, IOBE concludes that the cumulative reduction of non-performing loans on bank books by more than 40 percentage points in 2016-2023 resulted in an increase in net business loan flows by approximately €8 billion out of the €22.5 billion (36% of credit expansion) recorded during the same period.
IOBE notes that despite showing a marked improvement, the reduction of non-performing loans (NPLs) by banks is largely due to write-offs, sales and securitizations during the 2016-2022 period and less so to a conventional improvement.
As a result, most of the NPL stock moved off bank balance sheets came under the management of servicers. Consequently, business non-performing loans in the overall economy decreased by only 28% during the 2016-2022 period, reaching approximately €42 billion in 2022.
