Budget on positive course

The forecasts of the International Monetary Fund for Greece’s fiscal course in the coming years are almost in line with those of the government. According to its fiscal report, the Fiscal Monitor, released on Wednesday in Marrakesh, the primary surplus will be 1% of GDP this year, against the government’s forecast for 1.1% of GDP.

The IMF then projects primary surpluses of 2% of GDP in 2024 and 2025 and 2.2% in 2026, 2027 and 2028. The government projects 2.1% of GDP for 2024, 2.3% for 2025 and 2.5% for 2026, so it is slightly more optimistic on its medium-term horizon, but without significant deviations.

Last April the IMF was much more pessimistic. It then forecast a primary surplus of 0.4% of GDP for this year and then 1.4% in 2024, 1.6% in 2025, 1.8% in 2026 and 2% in 2027 and 2028.

At the same time, and while tax revenue has outperformed, the data and forecasts of the IMF show that as a percentage of GDP, revenues are on a slightly downward path. In 2023 they will decline to 47.3% of GDP from 50.2% in 2022. They will then fall to 46.4% in 2024 and 2025.

The Fund also foresees a downward trend for debt, from 178.1% of GDP in 2022 to 168% this year and 160.2% in 2024.