Primary surplus overshoot

National Economy and Finance Minister Kostis Hatzidakis is submitting the 2024 budget draft to Parliament on Monday, reserving some good news for the markets: According to information, this year’s primary surplus is projected to be slightly higher than the target of 0.7% of GDP.

This is not the first time the budget has overperformed, but it is significant that it comes despite its two revisions during the year, one (700 million euros) to cover election costs and the implementation of pre-election announcements (mainly the extension of the Market Pass) and another (€600 million) for supporting flood-stricken Thessaly.

As a ministry official noted, the budget has been formulated as a “machine that produces surpluses.” It is noted that in 2022 the budget returned to a primary surplus of 0.1% of GDP, against an initial forecast for a deficit of 1.6% of GDP.

This time the difference will not be that big (it will be a few tenths of a point above the target, close to 1% of GDP), but enough to send another signal to the markets about the fiscal stability of the country.

“We always want to pleasantly surprise the markets,” as a ministry official commented.