December inflation expected below 8%

Analysts see inflation moving downward in December as well, in view of the announcement of Eurostat’s provisional estimates on Friday and the national consumer price index by the Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT) on Monday. 

According to National Bank forecasts, the national index will be below 8%, compared to 8.5% in November and 9.1% in October, when the decline started from 12% in September. Based on this assessment by the National Bank, in 2022 the index averaged at 9.6%-9.7%, matching the estimate of the 2023 budget for a 9.7% average last year. 

This decline was mainly thanks to the course of energy rates, especially natural gas and heating oil, which moved downwards, despite the fact that significant reductions in international energy prices are only transferred to Greece with a long delay. 

Greek consumers’ main ally has been the good weather, which has facilitated the reduction of consumption and its storage. The price of heating oil was 1.12-1.13 euros per liter in December, compared to €1.41 in mid-October, when its sale started, but from since January 1 its reduced subsidy at the pump by the state combined with the upward trend in global oil rates in recent days, lead to a higher price in January.