Revision of projections for next year

The government is revising downwards its forecasts for growth and inflation in 2023, following a corresponding deterioration in the European Commission’s forecasts, expected to be reflected in its fall forecasts in the coming days, due to the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis.

The new government forecasts will be included in final budget draft and submitted to Parliament by November 20. In the first draft last month, the government predicted for 2023 a growth rate of 2.1% and inflation of 3%. Now, it sees GDP landing lower, without going into negative territory, as predicted at eurozone level. Inflation is estimated at a higher level, as Finance Minister Christos Staikouras suggested last week.

For this year, moreover, Staikouras said inflation will tend toward 10%, against the forecast of the draft budget for 8.8%. For GDP this year, the ministry has not yet moved from its 5.3% estimate, although there were recent estimates of 6%, including from central banker Yannis Stournaras. However, before concluding on the final figure, the Finance Ministry is also waiting for the October data, which will show whether consumption continued its upward trend.