The key to another €750 mln

Any unfulfilled commitments remaining for Greece at the end of its enhanced surveillance by its creditors will constitute the milestones required for the collection of the final tranche from eurozone central banks’ earnings from their Greek bond holdings (SMPs and ANFAs). That concerns some 750 million euros.

This is the most likely scenario concerning the tranche outstanding since 2019, ahead of the decisions of the European Commission and the Eurogroup regarding Greece’s emergence from its enhanced surveillance status this August.

That would practically signify a follow-up to the increased monitoring by the creditors, concerning a series of reforms that will have not been implemented and will likely be examined toward the end of this year. The €750 million will then be due for disbursement.

Among the country’s significant commitments are the reduction of the state’s overdue arrears, the payment of the state’s collateral toward private debtors’ loans, and the modernization of justice and education.

Government officials do not think that this will all be realized in the context of the simple post-bailout surveillance, which Greece will join, as have Cyprus, Ireland, Portugal and Spain, which had also been in support programs. Therefore, per the most likely scenario, the assessment will take place within the framework of the European Semester – i.e. the assessment by the European institutions every six months. Nevertheless, while for the simple post-bailout surveillance there is a small and rather general report, the Greek surveillance will likely lead to an appendix or a separate report on the outstanding commitments of the post-bailout monitoring.

In any case, the government expects to have collected that €750 million from the SMPs and ANFAs by December, as agreed in 2018 in the context of the measures to ease the Greek debt. That installment had been due in the summer of 2019, but due to the double election at the time, its disbursement was postponed.